Halibut Hangar

  

Dale Frederick Birely (19xx-)²; USS Halibut, SSN 587, (1975-1976), CS³ SS.

• Halibut Hangar Record Last Updated: TBD
• Halibut Hangar Wiki Page: Dale Birely
• Date of Navy Records Request¹: TBD
• Oral History:

-----notes-----

1. See Requesting Your Halibut Records

2. Culinary Specialist, CS was known as Mess Management Specialist, MS between 1974-2004.

3. Please use Halibut Hangar Record Update to provide missing information.

Originally Published August 23, 2010; Last Updated August 26, 2010; Last Republished August 26, 2010:

Archival footage of Halibut's 1960 New Zealand visit has been posted by New Zealand History online (Ministry for Culture and Heritage). The footage includes some below decks frames.

Halibut's Enlisted Mess¹

At this year's reunion 2010 (September 1-4) Halibut sailors will be telling sea stories—hopefully Halibut Veterans' Association (HVA) will be recording or transcribing them for incorporation into Halibut's fascinating history (perhaps as part of crew members' oral history⁵).

As an apprehensive teen deploying for the first time on the Halibut I was doing the only thing I was qualified to do—sit in crew's mess at the foreground-right table and observe as the qualified submariners prepared the submarine to dive.

My crewmates had ensured that I was thoroughly saturated with terrifying stories of seasickness, but thus far I was not even nauseous².

I was wondering what it was going to be like when the submarine submerged for three continuous months. I didn't have long to wonder before the diving alarm (horn) blasted, followed by the intercom speaker blaring dive, dive, dive.

The submarine tilted forward and almost immediately a column of water began pouring into the submarine from the overhead right next to the table where I was sitting!

My apprehensions quickly turn to high anxiety as the intercom blared "flooding in the crew's mess" and half dozen submariners materialized as if by magic.

Within seconds the "flooding" had stopped and one of the submariners³ was on a handset saying that the crew's mess "flooding" was secure. Off the handset he was adamantly inquiring who was supposed to secure the outboard vent.

At the time I did not understand what he was talking about⁴, but his calm speedy action enabled my high anxiety to subside back to apprehension while helping to mop up the sea water.

UPDATED 08/26/2010 Halibut Crew's Berthing

As bunks go the far port middle bunk was as good as any or so I thought; but it didn’t matter since I wouldn’t be sleeping much on that first deployment. I stuffed my books, skivvies, socks, shoes, toiletries, and light weight blue polyester poopie suits into the foam covered bedpan; seriously over-packing for the deployment.

The upside of over-packing was that it decreased the area which my bored crewmates could fill with millimeter sized rectangles of shredded communication traffic from the radio shack; rectangles that stuck to a blue polyester poopie suit like a bad case of dandruff.

The down-side of over-packing was it just created more dirty clothes that had to be stored pending infrequent laundry operations. Since I didn’t yet shave, I could have deployed with little more than a toothbrush and the clothes I was wearing. It wasn’t like Halibut would be making port calls.

The books remained packed and unread, crowded out by: technical manuals; wiring schematics; piping diagrams; crewmates’ patient explanations; and learning to stand watches.

I soon learn my bunk was on top of a behemoth battery, which weighed in at a whopping one hundred and twenty-five tons (about eighty of today’s light trucks); battery access was outside my bunk (the oval hatch on deck); and battery charging, discharging, and maintenance events increased the number of hatch openings and closings.

The bottles of neutralizing solution⁶ attached to the bulkhead outside my bunk were missed clues, but after that first deployment it didn’t matter where I slept; submarines had become a fascination.

-----notes-----

1. The video frame is looking port; the officer's mess-wardroom is directly above via a ladder on right-fwd (not pictured); the galley and enlist berthing is to the left-aft.

Some structures of the crews' mess have changed over the years.

2. Occasionally I did get seasick and my crewmates were only slightly exaggerating.

3. Later I learned it was crew member Machinist Mate Randy Mineke (shown in this photo—front row; second from viewer's left; only person in front row without facial hair!).

4. When surfaced some tanks are vented outboard and when submerge those tanks are vent inboard through charcoal filters. As part of the dive preparation process (rig for dive) all outboard vent valves must be closed or sea water enters.

Pressurized sea water passing through the fine holes of the charcoal filter stainless steel cover appears as a column of water (fortunately a mostly hollow column).

5. HVA may want to consider working with the Library of Congress' Veterans History Project.

Some Halibut veterans have already submitted histories—those riding Halibut during her later days will remember Chief Warrant Officer Ralph E. DeVoid (shown in this photo—back row; third from viewer's right; hand in his right pocket)

6. UPDATED 08/26/2010 When accessing Halibut’s battery it helped to be small as you had to crawl on your stomach. If your eyes or skin contacted the gases, vapors (i.e. protons of hydrogen) or corrosive products quick neutralization was essential to limit the damage.

Originally Published August 07, 2010; Last Updated August 25, 2010; Last Republished August 25, 2010:

United States and Canada have begun a third joint expedition for the purpose of mapping, surveying, and sampling the Arctic extended continental shelf.

UPDATED 08/25/2010 Photo Location is 81°28'1''N
United States and Canada (and Russia) are each anticipating access to an eventual ice free Arctic. An area believed to contain considerable natural resources with economic value.

The Law of Sea Conventions, which our nation has not, yet ratified¹, governs the rights to these natural resources based predominately on shelf geography.

We can anticipate considerable future discussions between Arctic nations as melting, mapping, surveying, and sampling proceeds.

Blog: State Department DipNote, U.S., Canada Embark on Third Joint Arctic Extended Continental Shelf Survey Mission

Web:

• USGS Audio Podcast, Generally describing the Third Joint Arctic Extended Continental Shelf Survey Mission

-----notes-----

1. Law of the Sea hearing transcript record before Committee on Foreign Relations, September 27, 2007 and October 4, 2007.

Originally published March 04, 2008, Last Updated August 24, 2010; Last Republished August 24, 2010:

Chinese Jin Class Type 094 SSBN Submarine

Blog:

• UPDATED 08/24/2010 DefPro, China’s Bulava?. Hans M. Kristensen post on Defense Professionals.
• UPDATED 03/03/2010 FAS SSB, Jin SSBN Flashes its Tubes. Overhead of missile tube (3 and 4?) doors open.
• FAS SSB, New Chinese Ballistic Missile Submarine Spotted

Web:

• UPDATED 05/09/2008 NPR, China's Underground Submarine Base Scrutinized
• UPDATED 05/01/2008 Telegraph, Chinese build secret nuclear submarine base [Yulin]. See Wikimapia for aerial picture of China's Yulin SubBase entrance at Sanya, Hainan Peninsula.
• Wikipedia, Type 094 submarine

Russia is increasing fourth generation conventional submarine platform production.

Advances in non-nuclear power plant development; materials and process improvements; shrinking national budgets, foreign sales; and proven littoral¹ usage and effectiveness; may be driving a renewed interest in non-nuclear submarine production.

The United States will likely begin conventional submarine production²—operating both nuclear and conventional submarines platforms.

Web: UPI, Russia increases diesel submarine production

-----notes-----

1. Submarine operations have shifted to the world's littorals (shallow coastal waters) where expensive nuclear submarines have comparatively increased risks, lessor effectiveness, and limited numbers.

At three billion dollars per tactical nuclear submarine platform; plus operations and weapons costs, nations cannot afford to produce and operate many of these platforms.

Thus, the focus is turning to relatively cheaper platforms (including autonomous platforms) using ultra-quiet propulsion and propulsors; sophisticated sound detection and analysis; improved mine detection, clearing, and occasional deployment; and diver and Special Forces lock-out-in.

2. Our Navy's reluctance (some might say refusal) to build and operate conventional submarine platforms is getting more difficult to understand and justify.

Understandably our admirals view operating conventional submarine platforms as trading a Rolls Royce for a Volkswagen.

Originally Published August 28, 2009; Last Updated August 21, 2010; Last Republished August 20, 2010:

Thirteen Fourteen year-old Dutch teen Laura Dekker's dream of circumnavigating the oceans3 solo in her 26 38 foot sailboat (a twin mast ketch; displacement ≅5 tons) has been temporarily delayed while the adults sort things out. A Dutch court, child protective services, Laura, her supportive parents, and some skeptical professionals1 are all trying to figure out how to balance Laura's dream with her successful development. The young seafarer was born at sea, developed her sea legs by age four, began solo sailing at age six, conceived her dream to circumnavigate the oceans in a boat by age ten, and convinced her parents to support her dream by age 13.

Jeanneau Gin Fizz

One more hurdle to go—persuading the Dutch court, child protective services, and some skeptical professionals to launch her on her dream (where many more hurdles await).

Twit:

• UPDATED 10/31/2009 Laura Dekker Sailing Team

Blog:

• UPDATED 07/30/2010 RNW, Watch out for pirates, Laura!.
• UPDATED 07/27/2010 CSM, 14-year-old Laura Dekker has Dutch court's -- and her mom's -- permission to sail around the world.

• UPDATED 09/09/2009 LAT, Laura Dekker's mom says daughter, 13, is too young to sail around the world.

  It seems Laura Dekker is not the only young seafarer with circumnavigation plans⁶.

Web:

• UPDATED 08/21/2010 RNW, Round-the-world Laura starts her journey.

• UPDATED 08/20/2010 Sail-World, Laura Dekker arrives Portugal, set to start solo circumnavigation and Portugal News Online, Girl sailor in record bid.

  The young seafarer's initial reports are delightful, reading like log entries: current distance, course, and speed; wind and sea state; injuries and sleep state; equipment functioning, failures, and malfunctions; vessel integrity and condition; observations and impression about sea creatures; and observed objects, debris, and other anomalies.

  Some articles are reporting two possible first legs; Portimao->Las Palmas or Portimao->Madeira->Las Palmas:

  

  We'd be amiss not to note that the two possible routes form an obtuse triangle.

  If the distance from Portimao->Madeira is 875 km and the distance from Madeira->Las Palmas is 557 km how much farther will Laura sail than if she sails directly from Portimao->Las Palmas? (hint: assume the angle, γ formed by the Portimao->Madeira->Las Palmas route is 114.7 degrees; and that the law of cosines applies. Or you could use Wikimapia's distance calculator.)

• UPDATED 08/07/2010 Sea Shepherd News, World’s Youngest Sailor Sets Sail Under the Sea Shepherd Flag.

  Laura and her father leave the Netherlands on a "shakedown" cruise to Portugal where she'll begin her solo circumnavigation attempt.

  The first leg is a short SSW course from Lisbon, Portugal to the Island of Madeira (Machico), Portugal—approximately 585 miles or 976 kilometers.

  

  Download Laura's planned route or view route progress.

• UPDATED 12/21/2009 Reuters, Dutch girl missing after thwarted global sail trip. Today Reuters is reporting the young seafarer is safe on the Caribbean Island of Saint Martin.

• UPDATED 10/31/2009 UPI, Court crushes solo sailor's record hopes.

  The young seafarer was found emotionally, intellectually and physically fit but must develop more definite plans for her voyage: education; first aid; sleep management; and overall safety before putting to sea.

  The additional time and more definite plans may result in additional sponsors.

• UPDATED 09/07/2009 NYT Editorial, How Young Is Too Young to Sail Around the World Alone?.

  Klinbenborg's4 editorial seems unnecessarily pedantic, utterly unimaginative, and not a little cynical. Pedantry, lack of imagination, and cynicism are poor substitutes for construction of flexible lifelines and netting to enable our youth to learn for themselves how to call their own bluff5.

  Yes, sometimes the lifelines and netting will have to be erected in weird and unconventional places—but, so what...who knows what Dekker's love of our oceans and voyage will produce...certainly not Klinbenborg?

• UPDATED 09/07/2009 TimesOnline, Dream of Dutch teen Laura Dekker to sail solo round world condemned as trip too far.

• UPDATED 09/03/2009 NPR, Young Sailors' Around-the-World Bids Examined (2M mp3).

  Swiss-American Tania Aebi expresses support for Laura Dekker and her dream. Significant because in 1985, at age 18 she solo circumnavigated the oceans in a 26 foot boat. The boat was equipped with a sexton sextant, VHS radio with a max range of 12 miles, and a cat for company! (see 48° North and Tania Aebi Sailing Adventures and Tania Aebi Shangri-La).

  Sea Temp Animation

  "...I began to cry, thinking of the daunting 3,000 miles between us [Tania referred to her and the 26 foot Varuna as 'us'] and our next landfall. Nowhere but in my minuscule Varuna, in the middle of the [Pacific] ocean , could the enormity of the planet Earth make me feel so privileged yet so completely like a speck of nothingness"--Maiden Voyage--²

• UPDATED 08/28/2009 YouTube, Reuters: Dutch law blocks girl sailor's plan:
• RNW, Judge blocks solo sailing trip of 13-year-old
• RNW, Dutch yachtsgirl stopped from solo world trip
• NYT, Setback in Dutch Girl’s Quest for Ambitious Voyage
• NPR, Girl's Solo Sailing Plans Stir 'Super Child' Debate

-----notes-----

1. Some of the concerns that have been expressed are:

• Safety: Oceans can rapidly and unexpectedly turn terrifying, even for very experienced sailors in much larger ships—Laura plans on sailing in a very small 26 foot boat.

  This is a simple matter of objectively evaluating Laura's sailing skills, including different emergency scenarios and expected sea states.

  In this regard it is worth noting that Laura has sailed solo across the North Sea in May (not a particularly treacherous time of year). Depending on the time of year the North Sea can present treacherous sea states equivalent to any around the globe.

  Laura has also pledged to put to port for stormy seas—which can be defined by sea state (e.g. in port if expected sea state above 5 or 6).

• Isolation Effects: Professionals are concerned that Laura's socialization and development will be hindered by her isolation at sea between the ages of 13 and 15.

  Most teens isolate themselves in their bedrooms; Laura's choice is a sailboat, not much bigger than a bedroom. It’s not clear how isolated Laura will be; modern communication equipment makes isolation virtually impossible (absent malfunction or lack of use).

  Of course Laura may not feel at all isolated sailing alone on our vast oceans?

• Educational Development: It's very likely that a young girl who dreams of sailing the world has a very difficult time sitting in a classroom?

  So the adults can just turn our oceans into Laura's classroom—she'll have plenty of time for homework—her assignments and help are just a mouse click away.

2. UPDATED 09/07/2009 Aebi's book, Maiden Voyage is not just a story about a young teen's circumnavigation of our oceans in a sailboat. It's a compelling story about a young woman using the challenges of circumnavigation to sort out a chaotic and challenging childhood—becoming more confident, capable, and composed in the process.

Coincidently Aebi's parents were divorced when she was young and it was her father encouraging (and at times irritating) her to make the voyage.

3. UPDATED 09/08/2009 The published voyage map proposes a standard and well known general circumnavigation route.

An initial itinerary (stops along the route) is usually altered by events occurring during circumnavigation. Dekker's unique circumstances (experienced 14 year-old seafarer) may necessitate or attract, regardless of necessity, additional itinerary constraints?

4. Wonder if Klinbenborg would find it interesting (instructive?) to write a series contrasting Dekker's peers’ activity with Dekker's during the various legs of her voyage?

...Today soloist Laura Dekker has delayed transit through the Panama Canal as she scurries to locate, recruit, and coordinated several line handlers required to...

...Shortly Dekker will begin one of the longest and perhaps loneliest legs of her voyage, sailing South Southwest into the equatorial currents and counter currents of the South Pacific...

...Laura's peers are socializing at Chipsy's eating burgers and frites...gossip is that George will never recover from Gina...

5. If the young Dekker learned nothing on her voyage but how to call her own bluff she will have learned a very valuable skill indeed.

6. Young Jessica Watson was on a 10 day pre-circumnavigation shakedown cruise when her sailboat was unceremoniously demasted in a collision with a tanker (a common hazard when sailing in or across sea lanes).

UPDATED 10/18/2009 This morning Jessica Watson officially begins her circumnavigation voyage; and UKGuardian, 16-year-old Australian begins solo round-the-world yacht voyage; and SailWorld, She's off! Jessica Watson departs Australia - but for what record?.

Young Abby Sunderland is in the planning stages, too.

Originally Published December 31, 2009; Last Updated August 18, 2010; Last Republished August 18, 2010:

During our period of shrinking budgets; finite resources; prioritized threats; and difficult choices we can expect and should welcome passionate persuasive augments by our military components and their advocates.

But, passionate persuasion must not yield to disjointed hyperbolic speculation or propaganda such as that expressed in How the United States Lost the Naval War of 2015.

Kraska spins his speculative China hegemon fairytale out of Erickson and Yang's recent article on China's investigation of using a conventional terminally controllable tactical reentry vehicle as a "carrier killer".

The fairytale operationalizes Yang and Erickson's carrier killer², liberally sprinkles in a "handful" of Chinese carriers (one couldn't be built by 2015), shakes in some "quieter than Los Angeles-class" diesel Song submarines, adds a decade late pinch of "stealthy" AIP Yuan submarine, and casts a paralyzing spell over all counter-measures, defenses, and ASW operations³.

The Chinese Communist Party's desires for unification under communist party rule, expansive Law of the Sea Convention interpretation, and Southeast Asia hegemonic aspirations seem pretty clear. What's unclear is whether the Chinese Communist Party leadership seeks any war with the United States to address these issues, much less the War of 2015.

Unfortunately, Kraska's fairytale⁴ does little to help clarify these issues. Wonder how the Kraska fairytale changes if we assume China's increased military budgets have more to do with domestic control than preparation for the War of 2015 with its biggest trading partner and debtor.

Blogs:

• UPDATED 05/15/2010 Diplomat, China Set for Naval Hegemony.

  A more circumspect, if still provocative Karaska continuing on the potential for China regional sea hegemony, including a few examples of China's admittedly clumsy-gangly-teenage-bully maritime behavior.

  Refreshingly, this time Kraska suggests cooperation and partnership as one possible outcome to a testosterone ladened teenage bully with the potential for provoking a punched in the nose (an outcome likely not lost on China's leadership).

  Fortunately, cooperating and partnering, is already underway and happily the United States is fast redirecting its focus and resources to catch-up, including cooperating with China!

  However, managing periodic playground bullying and fights is far from war and does not justify our current obscene and exorbitant defense budgets or ever more costly and exotic weapons systems.

  Moreover, Karaska's implicit inferences from North Korea's recent maritime behavior seem wildly speculative, wide of any mark or current evidence, and inconsistent with China's current behavior and military chain of command.

• UPDATED 03/18/2010 USNI, China’s Navy: Hey, let’s not panic…. Nice ship and sub tally with some cautionary words (plus a map).

  Nations with advanced and well functioning civil society institutions may not fully appreciate how awkward a nation lacking those institutions can respond, particularly during times of shocks and transitions.

  It's delightful to observe China (at all levels) trying to play with its peers, notwithstanding the periodic bullying, awkward moments, and playground fights.

  The intense inclination of those residing behind the walls of Zhongnanhai to move China behind walls must at times be overwhelming?

Web:

• UPDATED 08/17/2010 DefenseLink, Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2010 (5M pdf)

  "China is developing an anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) based on a variant of the CSS-5 medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM). The missile has a range in excess of 1,500 km, is armed with a maneuverable warhead, and when integrated with appropriate command and control systems, is intended to provide the PLA the capability to attack ships, including aircraft carriers, in the western Pacific Ocean....The PLA is acquiring conventional MRBMs to increase the range at which it can conduct precision strikes against land targets and naval ships, including aircraft carriers, operating far from China’s shores out to the first island chain."--DoD 2010--

  There is nothing new or shocking on the “carrier killer”; no mention of terminal guidance; elsewhere, the report states that OTH radar is being developed and can be coupled with satellite imagery.

  Total 2009 PLA military spending is estimated at ≅$140+ billion dollars on a budget of ≅$70+ billion dollars. (do all nation's defense components overrun their proposed budget by 100%?)

  The report includes a nice "org-chart" of China's military structure.

  Unfortunately, DoD persists in its opaque ways (submitting an opaque annex with the 2010 report) while expressing concern over China's lack of transparency.

• UPDATED 08/11/2010 DefPro, China's New "Carrier-Killing" Missile Is Overrated. Article by Loren B. Thompson:

  "Frankly, the U.S. Navy has so many options for negating Chinese antiship capabilities that I can only conclude the alarmists aren't conversant with U.S. military preparations to be so worried about the nascent Dong Feng."

• UPDATED 07/08/2010 Time, U.S. Missiles Deployed Near China Send a Message and Asia Times, China flexes its naval muscle.

  Two good articles on the deteriorating military cooperation between China and United States—both articles could be titled “Dangerous Games Adult Children Play”.

  It seems useful to note that the much hyped China DF-21 or DF-21A, the so called ballistic missile cum conventional "carrier killer", was not deployed or demonstrated.

  Left alone, the male military leadership⁵ of both nations will tend toward what they've learned best; taunt, threaten, and intimidate—male children in America learn this behavior early. The childhood game is called "King of the Hill". The game doesn't change when the kids become adults or admirals, just the location (i.e. from the schoolyard playground becomes to the South China and Yellow Seas) and costs.

  Learning the childhood game "King of the Hill" is harmful by itself, but the adult logic our male military leaders (and some non-military leaders) assign to playing the childhood game as an adult is even more harmful. Our adult male military leaders asserts it’s necessary to play the childhood game "King of the Hill" so we don’t have to really fight, really (this curious and bizarre logic will always lead to fighting, exactly the opposite of their stated assertion)!

  Let’s try replacing both nations’ military leadership with female military leadership. American girls show no inclination or interest in playing the childhood game "King of the Hill" and I'll bet China's girls don't either.

  As always resolving one problem creates another—what will our female admirals do with all those lonely male admirals?

  Maybe they can fund the annual "King of the Hill" games for all our male admirals, minus the weapon systems.

• UPDATED 03/30/2010 USNI, 'Get Off the Fainting Couch'. Craig Hooper and Christopher Albon argue that the "carrier killer" hype has been harmful and counterproductive.

  The hype legitimizes a non-operational missile and distracts from constructive dialogue with China and other regional nations. Dialogue aimed at highlighting how destabilizing such a missile would be for the region should it ever become operational.

• UPDATED 03/30/2010 Wired, China Testing Ballistic Missile ‘Carrier-Killer’. Article by Andrew Erickson includes some useful links but nothing new.

• UPDATED 03/28/2010 SASC, Hearing on U.S. Pacific Command.... Includes a useful summary of the U.S. Navy Pacific Command Open Posture by Admiral Robert F. Willard.

  Of particular interest is China's Southeast Asia playground etiquette...:

  • "...China’s growing presence and influence in the region create both challenges and opportunities for the United States and regional countries...."
  • "...China’s rapid and comprehensive transformation of its armed forces is affecting regional military balances and holds implications beyond the Asia-Pacific region. Of particular concern is that elements of China’s military modernization appear designed to challenge our freedom of action in the region...."
  • "...China continues to field the largest conventional submarine force in the world totaling more than 60 boats; while the quality of China’s submarine fleet is mixed the 14 percentage of modern, quiet submarines in the fleet is growing. This fleet also includes a number of nuclear powered fast attack and ballistic missile submarines. China is also developing a new submarine launched nuclear ballistic missile, the JL-2, capable of ranging the western United States...."
  • "...China fields a growing number of sophisticated multi-role fighter aircraft, including the SU-27 and SU-30 purchased from Russia and indigenously produced 4th generation aircraft. The PLA Air Force (PLAAF) and Naval air forces have continued to focus on improving pilot and controller proficiencies in complex, multi-plane combat scenarios, including operations over water. The PLA has focused considerable effort on building up its integrated air defense capabilities and has deployed an increasing number of upgraded Russian SA-20 PMU 2 long range surface-to-air missile systems along the Taiwan Strait. China is also developing and testing a conventional anti-ship ballistic missile based on the DF-21/CSS-5 MRBM designed specifically to target aircraft carriers...."

• UPDATED 03/17/2010 Atlantic, Cyber Warriors.

  Nice article by James Fallows—it's easy to overlook that much can be learned from those you do not fear.

• UPDATED 03/01/2010 CSBA, Why AirSea Battle? (pdf).

  Another shot (weak pun) at the China AntiShip Ballistic Missile (ASBM) story—this one is a slightly more circumspect version of Kraska's Story within the context of some interesting China-Iran Anti-Access/Area-Denial conjecture.

  The author, Andrew F. Krepinevich, appears to cite the now familiar Yang and Erickson article for the proposition that the ASBM exists:

  "...Perhaps the most notable Chinese addition is the anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM).³⁹" @ page 18 [footnote 39 is to Yang and Erickson]

  But then later more accurately states:

  "...To be sure, even if the PRC has a capable ASBM, a targeting system is still required to enable the [≈ mach 10+] reentry vehicle to hone in on its [highly mobile and heavily defended] target. Fielding the ISR [intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance] component for its ASBM force represents a challenging task for the PLA...." @ page 19 [added to original text]

  This type of general conjecture is routine and near ubiquitous within our defense industry, military components, and intelligence sectors seeking to understand and forecast the next "threat and enemy" (eventually we'll figure out that needing a "threat and enemy" is the threat and enemy).

  But, care must be taken when reading these general conjecture articles to ensure that repetitive general conjecture is not mistaken for specific and complete evidence.

  Otherwise the repetitive general conjecture becomes the a "threat and enemy".

• UPDATED 02/10/2010 UPI, China says no hegemonic intention.

  Statements of national intentions are of course important and necessary, but insufficient without the accompanying transparent and confirming participation and cooperation for international growth and stability.

  It's no longer desirable or feasible for an authoritarian nation, particularly the size of China, to shout non-hegemonic intentions from behind walls. China’s authoritarian communist party must eliminate walls, move with all diligent speed toward a civil society, and begin shouldering a portion of the heavy burden of ensuring global stability and growth.
  

  • UPDATED 02/20/2010 The Diplomat, Why China’s Naval Rise Could Help the World

    "There's much more reason to be positive...I do think China wants to fit into the 'global commons.' We just have to be careful [sic: too?] make sure they see we are trying to treat them as equals."--Diplomat quoting Eric Wertheim, US naval analyst and author of Combat Fleets of the World--

• UPDATED 02/10/2010 ExpressIndia, China's anti-ship missile not a threat: Navy chief. Interesting comments from India's Admiral Nirmal Verma on the use of a ballistic anti-ship missile:

  "...Some event [sic] talk about carrying out land-based missile attacks against an aircraft carrier. We must weigh this against the difficulties of targeting a mobile target out at sea,...

  ...Should an adversary manage to evade a plethora of air, surface and sub-surface escorts and be capable of hitting a carrier, sinking it or putting a carrier out of action is by no means easy"--Express India quoting Admiral Verma--

• UPDATED 01/11/2010 WSJ OpEd, The Taiwan Arms-Sales Equation.

  "Cross-strait relations won't progress peacefully unless Taipei can defend itself from a Chinese attack."

• UPDATED 12/31/2009 UPI, China's navy mulls push into Arabian Sea.

  • UPDATED 01/02/2010 UPI, China has no plans for African Navy base.
  • Wikimapia Aerial Map, CoCo Island, Burma
  • Wikimapia Aerial Map, Gwadar, Pakistan
  • Wikimapia Aerial Map, Hambantota, Sri Lanka

-----notes-----

1. Kraska is careful to state that the views expressed in his article do not represent or reflect official U.S. Navy or Department of Defense policy. But, then goes on to indulge speculation, unproven facts, undocumented data, and liberal assumptions uncharacteristic of a navy, Law of the Sea specialist.

2. UPDATED 01/17/2010 Kraska refers to the DF-21 which has an open-source circular error of probability estimated range of 300-400 meters (see FAS, DF-21 / CSS-5 and SinoDefense, DongFeng 21 (CSS-5) Medium-Range Ballistic Missile, and John Lewis and Hua Di, China's Ballistic Missile Programs, International Security, Fall 1992 Vol. 17, No. 2, 3M pdf and Wikipedia, Ballistic Missiles, China and en.interpretation of Chinese blog providing the early speculation on a DF-21 antiship variant).

It's unclear whether terminal course correction of a fast moving reentry vehicle is even feasible. And if feasible whether it's practical for use against a highly mobile and defended target like an aircraft carrier. Not to mention the nuclear retaliatory risks inherent in using a ballistic weapon for conventional tactical purposes

Distinguish the rare anti-ship ballistic missile from the common anti-ship cruise missile (e.g. Tomahawk, Sizzler, Sunburn, Club etc.)

3. It’s likely the waters within the first string of pearls are more “acoustically wired” and monitored than a Cold War Soviet embassy.

4. It should be noted that our military officers below the level of flag (admiral) generally are not expected to think in the diplomatic terms of balancing cooperation with confrontation.

However, Kraska seems to mock cooperation and partnership and assume confrontation—fortunately Kraska is not a navy flag officer.

5. Of course, some of our military and non-military leadership is moving away from past models and non-cooperative behavior. They must be open, transparent, and vocal on the need to swiftly replace obsolete models and behavior with updated learning and models.

The transition will be daunting since there are currently fewer vested interests in cooperation than non-cooperation.

We must begin holding our military and non-military leaderships accountable for the missed "opportunity costs" that results when they substitute taunting, threatening, and intimidation for cooperation.

Originally Published March 04, 2008; Last Updated August 20, 2010; Last Republished August 17, 2010:

Pentagon releases its annual China military report, 2008 Military Power of the People’s Republic of China (30Megs from DefenseLink), stating there has been no change in Deng Xiaoping's 24 character strategy¹.

The Pentagon estimates China's 2007 military related spending at between $97 billion and $139 billion—China has announced a 17.6% increase over its announced 2007 spending level of $45 billion.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang said the Pentagon's report is seriously at odds with the facts and interferes in China's internal affairs. He also denied Beijing engaged in 2007 cyber warfare attacks on United States' computer networks.

The Pentagon report can be read as encouraging China to make its military build-up more transparent (透明, tou ming)² than signaling any alarm—hiding military capacity, by either nation, only increases the potential for misunderstanding an otherwise growing, positive, and beneficial relationship³.

Web:

• UPDATED 08/17/2010 DefenseLink, Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2010 (5M pdf) and DefenseLink, U.S. Wants Renewed Military Contacts with China and WT, China report to be released by Pentagon.

  Well, at least the annual report is decreasing in year-on-year bit size (30Megs, 18Megs, and this year 5Megs); even if military budgets are increasing. More importantly our military leaders continue seeking increased military-military contact...more later.

  • UPDATED 08/19/2010 NTI, China Fires Back on U.S. Report

  • UPDATED 08/20/2010 NAP, The Dragon and the Elephant: Understanding the Development of Innovation Capacity in China and India: Summary of a Conference (Free PDF Download). The summary publication begins to grapple with globalization implications for the United States—novel, interesting, and complex questions inadequately or incompletely described by existing models.

    Arguably, this report is infinitely more important than our Pentagon's newly titled annual China report.

    Perhaps, in a nutshell the Catch-22 dilemma can be summarized as: the United States being unable to speedily deliver capital and technology at meaningful levels; China being unable to speedily deliver civil society structures at meaningful levels.

    Ironically, both nations’ leadership likely wants to deliver what the other requires, but have yet to figure out how! Not surprisingly the dilemma is causing no small amount of anxiety and consternation for both nations.

    Not to mention unnecessary military expenditures, which further exasperates each nation’s leadership and makes solving the dilemma even more difficult.

• UPDATED 03/25/2009 DefenseLink, Military Power of the People’s Republic of China 2009 (18M pdf)

  "The linkages between the occasional strategic pronouncement and actual policy decisions in China are not apparent, especially during periods of crisis.--2009 Pentagon Report, China--"

• ChinaOrg, Defense budget to grow 17.6 percent in 2008 Official Chinese Communist Party Site

-----notes-----

1. China's 24 character strategy, as articulated by Deng Xiaoping:

“冷静观察, 站稳脚跟, 沉着应付, 韬光养晦, 善于守拙, 绝不当头.”—“Observe calmly; secure our position; cope with affairs calmly; hide our capacities and bide our time; be good at maintaining a low profile; and never claim leadership.” --Deng Xiaoping--

2. Literally "penetrating bright" which is at odds with some of Deng's 24 characters.

3. Who can resist a people whose language uses the same character to mean strange, weird, or wonderful (奇, qi).

Originally Published August 01, 2010; Last Updated August 02, 2010; Last Republished August 01, 2010:

Yesterday, our navy commissioned the seventh¹ Virginia-class submarine, USS Missouri SSN 780.

Web:

• UPDATED 08/02/2010 NavyMil, USS Missouri Joins Commissioned Fleet.
• UPDATED 08/01/2010 TheDay, USS Missouri 'reports for duty'.
• Video of Full Commissioning Ceremony

Short clip of the USS Missouri's sponsor, Rebecca Gates speaking the traditional words "Officers and crew of the U.S.S. Missouri, man our ship and bring her to life.":

-----notes-----

1. Other commissioned Virginia-class submarines: USS Virginia (SSN 774), USS Texas (SSN 775), USS Hawaii (SSN 776), USS North Carolina (SSN 777), New Hampshire (SSN 778), New Mexico (SSN 779).

The USS California (SSN 781) is expected to be the next and eighth Virginia-class submarine commissioning.

Originally Published December 05, 2009; Last Updated July 29, 2010; Last Republished July 29, 2010:

New START treaty negotiations enter the eighth round with leaders of both nations (U.S. and Russia) pledging to honor the recently expired START treaty until the new treaty can be finished.

Perhaps the negotiators will finish on December 08, 2009, the anniversary of President Dwight D. Eisenhower's 1953 "Atoms for Peace" speech to the United Nations where he said to the world:

"...The United States would seek more than the mere reduction or elimination of atomic materials for military purposes.

It is not enough to take this [nuclear?] weapon out of the hands of the soldiers. It must be put into the hands of those who will know how to strip its military casing and adapt it to the arts of peace.

...To hasten the day when fear of the atom will begin to disappear from the minds of people, and the governments of the East and West, there are certain steps that can be taken now.

...To the making of these fateful decisions, the United States pledges before you--and therefore before the world--its determination to help solve the fearful atomic dilemma--to devote its entire heart and mind to find the way by which the miraculous inventiveness of man shall not be dedicated to his death, but consecrated to his life...."--President Eisenhower--

Blog:

• UPDATED 07/29/2010 New START and Missile Defense. Ivan Oelrich addresses some of the treaty provisions and its de minimis critics (be sure to read the clarifying comments, too).

Web:

• UPDATED 05/19/2010 DoD ArmedForcesNews, Mullen Calls Treaty Ratification ‘Right Thing to Do’. Joint Chiefs Chair, Admiral Mike Mullen is onboard for ratification of the New Start Treaty.

  We must work very hard as a nation to reduce or eliminate the logic that states or implies making our potential adversaries less fearful or more comfortable¹ makes us, in some unstated, unreasoned, or unknown, but nevertheless “sure way” less safe—it does not!

• 5/13/2010 WSJ, The Case for the New START Treaty by SecDef.
• UPDATED 04/08/2010 NYT, Russia and U.S. Sign Nuclear Arms Reduction Pact.

  Presidents Obama and Medvedev sign the incremental, but significant Start Treaty - New. The Start Treaty - New must be viewed as a small step on the long road of building the non-authoritarian governments, trust, and verification processes necessary to approach a world with zero nuclear weapons.

  New Start Treaty Signing, Prague

  • Download the New START Treaty and Protocol
  • Signing Remarks by Presidents Obama and Medvedev
  • Pictures, Treaty, Summary of Treaty
• UPDATED 04/01/2010 ACA, New START to Be Signed April 8.

• UPDATED 03/29/2010 DoDLive, Chairman’s Corner: Solidly Behind the New START Treaty.

  Nice to read so much effort is being expended building, improving, and strengthening U.S.-Russia military-to-military relationships.

• UPDATED 02/03/2010 UPI, Russian lawmaker coordinating nuke pact.

• UPDATED 01/04/2010 NTI, Putin Says U.S. Missile Shield Plan Harms Arms Control Efforts pact-report.

  It seems Russia's prime minister is engaging in a process negotiators call "nibbling"—you've achieved a deal you can live with, but want to test if you can gain anything more —news reports indicate there are no further crumbs to be nibbled.

  Ninth round to begin shortly...perhaps the negotiators can finish quickly and begin negotiating what to do about the possibility of colliding with asteroid 99942 Apophis

• UPDATED 12/18/2009 Reuters, Russia, U.S. agree outline nuclear pact-report.

  Fantastic—now on to the "real" reductions and "global zero"!

• UPDATED 12/17/2009 NYT, Nearing New Arms Pact, U.S. and Russia Look Beyond It.

• UPDATED 12/09/2009 UPI, Ban calls for action ahead of NPT summit.

  The Secretary General praised Moscow and Washington for their new START negotiations—urging continued momentum and pursuit of parallel reduction negotiation tracks:

  "The world should pursue several related measures, including eliminating others' weapons of mass destruction; combating (weapons of mass destruction) terrorism; and bans on missiles, space weapons,...We also must not lose sight of conventional weapons disarmament."--UPI quoting Ban Ki-moon--

• UPDATED 12/09/2009 Barents Observer, Also for our Barents safety
• BBC, New Start likely in US-Russia nuclear talks
• BBC, US and Russia pledge nuclear missile treaty soon

-----notes-----

1. Many or most of the time our potential adversaries will not be fearful or uncomfortable for reasons consistent with our customs, understandings, and culture.

Our nation is fortunate to have an extremely capable mix of military and civilian defense leadership to guide our nation's transition during this period where nuclear weapons have the potential for becoming a baleful source of insecurity and instability.