Halibut Hangar

Originally Published January 14, 2010; Last Updated February 08, 2010; Last Republished February 08, 2010:

Our navy is expected to present its proposed shipbuilding plan and budget on February 01, 2010, concurrent with the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) 2010. The related Nuclear Posture Review 2010 has been delayed one month and is expected to be delivered to Congress on March 01, 2010 (Defense Committee Briefings February 01, 2010).

USS Virginia SSN 774

Partial Table - Virginia-class Submarine (VCS) Quantity 2011-2015¹

Res:

• UPDATED 02/01/2010 Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2011 and DoD FY 2011 and Supporting Documentation and Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR)

  

  Since many of the budget and related documents are produced in parallel it's not uncommon for numbers to differ among CRS; OMB; DoD; or QDR documents.

  This is particularly true if you're trying to trace a single line item (e.g. a Virginia-class submarine).

  That said there's a whopping $5,132,688,000 ([QDR-R&D]/2) for two VCS and advance procurement for next years (FY2012) VCS, plus $132,039,000 for VCS support equipment in the unclassified budget.

  The president's budget still lists only one VCS and advance procurement, but then goes on to include this bit of budgeteering:

  "...[In all: $13,881,532,000] $15,724,520,000, to remain available for obligation until September 30, [2014] 2015: Provided, That additional obligations may be incurred after September 30, [2014] 2015, for engineering services, tests, evaluations, and other such budgeted work that must be performed in the final stage of ship construction:..."

  DoD P1 FY 2011 has proposed $15,724,250,000 for navy shipbuilding and conversion. Perhaps those inserting $15,724,520,000 multi-year obligation language into the president's budget meant $15,724,250,000?

Blog:

• UPDATED 01/15/2010 Lexington Institute⁷, Need For New Ballistic-Missile Sub Delays Development Of Virginia Replacement.

  Let's not ramp up the production rate¹ of the $2.8 billion dollar Virginia-class submarine (VCS) hoping for a threat to counter or even worse, begin designing a follow-on VCS without any understanding of the threat or mission it will perform (likely much different than past or present threats and missions).

  Instead, let's keep VCS production level at one per year¹ and extend the life of the billion dollar and perfectly good Los Angeles-class as far as its hull will safely tolerate.

  In the interim we can work on:

  • better understanding, defining, and refining the threats and missions we require our tactical submarine platforms to respond to; and
  • reducing the power plant footprint; and
  • ≈ halving the hull size⁸; and
  • maturing promising technologies and processes; and
  • recruiting and training indigenous engineering talent; and
  • halving the unaffordable and unsustainable three billion dollar price tag ($2.6 billion if the navy’s and contractors'³ affordability goals are realized); and

    • UPDATED 01/18/2010 To achieve the navy's goal of 48 fast attack submarines (313 ship navy) it would need to spend an estimated average of $27.4 billion⁴ on shipbuilding.

      In FY 2010 it spent $13.8 billion on shipbuilding, about half of what it would need to spend. All but the most ardent do not believe it is realistic to expect the navy to double its current shipbuilding budget.

      Stated differently the navy is unlikely to reach its goal of a 313 ship navy⁵ at the current average ship prices⁶. But then a 275-285 ship (40 fast attack submarines) navy is still an enormous and enormously expensive navy.

  • continue efforts too decrease the total life-cycle cost² of our submarine platforms.

Web:

• UPDATED 02/08/2010 Heritage Foundation, Submarine Arms Race in the Pacific: The Chinese Challenge to U.S. Undersea Supremacy

  An informative article arguing for closing the "submarine gap"⁹ by among other recommendations, increasing the production of the Virginia-class submarine (VCS)—the article fails to make the case for increasing the production rate of the VCS.

  It's of course very difficult to think about the future disconnected from the past, but to state the obvious China is not Russia. To state the not so obvious: disagreements with China over interpretation of Law of Sea Treaty; claimed ownership of seabed natural resources; Internet militarization and freedoms; Taiwan self-defense; ensuring stability in China's Autonomous Provinces; or how to guarantee global growth and stability; and protection of sea lanes and line of communication is not a U.S.-China Cold War.

  Yet, this article, other articles, and to some extent our navy persist arguing within a general Russia-U.S. Cold War framework. Telling us that China has 60-70 submarines verses our projected 40 is only to hint at the scrap value of each nation's submarine fleet.

  There is very little of significance that an informed submariner does not currently understand about China's submarine fleet (of course we always want to understand more). The open source data hints at nothing more than a heightened watch and respond with prudent interest. Our Chief of Naval Operations; naval intelligence; and military research components are doing just that...

  Admittedly China's authoritarian leadership's studied ambiguous silence; timidity or reluctance to engage in transparent, candid, continuous, and meaningful military dialogue; and periodic public bellicosity are not helpful.

  The article makes much of the Virginia-class submarine's not insignificant ability to stealthily insert some Special Forces troops. However, our SSGN platform is significantly stealthier (it doesn't run noisy reactor coolant pumps) and carries significantly more Special Forces (SF) troops, SF support and insertion equipment, and quantities of cruise missiles.

  Those arguing that our submarine fleet should continue on a Cold War trajectory or tempo carry a heavy burden that is not met by citing quantities of submarines. A burden this article does not even come close to carrying.

  Our navy and military thinkers must begin transparently discussing our military spending within the context of cooperatively leveraging other nation's military resources to ensure global growth and stability, including China's! Curiously the article cites Australia's and India's submarine acquisitions as indicating the need for increasing our submarine production not decreasing it.

  Those still stuck in a Cold War framework or paradigm may again be relevant, but that relevance is not within the open source data or the period of our navy's next 30 year shipbuilding plan.

• UPDATED 01/22/2010 Reuters, Exclusive: Pentagon budget seeks to kill 7 arms programs

  "Shipbuilding accounts for $14.1 billion [$300 million increase over FY2010] of the 2011 budget request, funding that would pay for nine new ships. Included are two DDG-51 destroyers, two Virginia-class submarines, two Littoral Combat Ships and one amphibious assault ship."--Reuters--

• Bloomberg, Gates Tells Navy to Buy 17 Littoral Combat Ships Through 2015

  "...Gates told the Navy to add $2.38 billion for the second Virginia-class submarine in 2015, one more than the Navy planned...."--Bloomberg--

• Bloomberg, Lockheed, Raytheon Gain in Gates’s Europe Missile-Defense Plan

-----notes-----

1. The table may not reflect the Navy VCS proposed shipbuilding plan or budget when it is submitted on February 01, 2010. Specifically, it's unclear whether the Navy will propose another delay until 2015 of the two per year VCS production rate.

• UPDATED 01/22/2010 congressional testimony on January 20, 2010 indicate our navy's 2011-2015 plan will propose two VCS each year for a total of 10 VCS.

  

• UPDATED 01/22/2010 It's too early to begin talking about the SSBN(X) (aka SBSD, Sea Based Strategic Deterrent or Ohio-class replacement) beyond saying:
  • the navy wants to produce 12 (why not fewer); and
  • envisions ≈15K ton displacement (why not less); and
  • envisions 16 missile tubes (why not fewer); and
  • estimates $80-85 billion for the class (an obscene $7 billion each); and
  • will be spending at least $2 billion by 2015 for advance design, missile, and power plant work; and

  • would like to find a non-navy line item for the $85 billion or portion thereof (freeing up funds for its 313 ship goal dream or nightmare; see NavyTimes, House panel: Navy could seek fleet funding help).

    • An alternative non-navy source of funding for the estimated $85 SBSD platform would increase the VCS submarine platform force structure by four (other non-submarine platforms would increase too).

      It should be noted that the fast-attack (SSN) submarine platform force structure is front loaded in the 30-year shipbuilding plan. So the quantities are greater for the first decade (2011-2021) than the last two decades (2022-2040).

2. Life-cycle cost is significantly determined by design choices and trade-offs that are dependent on the availability and maturity of technologies.

3. Our submarine contractors (General Dynamics and Northrop Grumman) are exquisitely sensitized to the need for producing submarines that are smaller, cheaper, with superior performance characteristics.

But to use a fashionable term, sensitivity alone will not "bend the cost curve" (cost curves have always been bent but we get the message) or reduce total life-cycle cost. Particularly for a monopoly or some might argue a duopoly in a mostly opaque environment.

4. Global Strategic Assessment 2009, Recalibrating American Power, Alternative Force Structures and Resource Constraints.

5. UPDATED 01/22/2010 See congressional testimony of Eric J. Labs, Senior Analyst, Naval Forces and Weapons The Long-Term Outlook for the U.S. Navy’s Fleet (pdf), January 20, 2010

6. From Long-Term Outlook (see above):

7. UPDATED 01/22/2010 Loren B. Thompson's January 20, 2010 written testimony submitted to the Sea Power Subcommittee has several interesting observation on the funding pressures confronting a 313 ship navy.

As nations increase their portion of benefit from a global economy they can expect to fund more of its stability—conversely as our portion of benefit declines we can expect to fund less (although not necessarily do less; a pass-thy-hat strategy to global stability).

The funding equilibrium between hardware and sailor's training-morale-welfare is changing. This is especially true for our submariners as our navy seeks ways of retaining more qualified submariners, performing increasingly complex and technical tasks, for longer periods of time, in more challenging environments.

In this regard it seems useful to note that our navy's recent decision to open submarines to women will be helpful. Additionally, halving the submarine hull size; reducing unit and hardware life-cycle costs; off-loading some functions to autonomous systems; and improving network-centric capabilities etc. will be helpful.

8. UPDATED 02/02/2010 Beyond the obvious enhanced performance and decreased material costs, a smaller submarine requires fewer personnel to operate.

As a bonus the smaller the nuclear submarine, the smaller the power plant required to propel it through the water. There are many other good reasons to have smaller nuclear submarine, too.

Of course the submarine's mission(s) impact(s) submarine size too. Ideally a submarine's broad mission spectrum results from the ability to dynamically configure the submarine for a particular mission. As opposed to building a fleet of huge statically configured submarine to accommodate all predicted or imagined missions (which invariable change).

9. The language is reminiscent of the infamous Cold War "missile gap" that caused so much wasteful spending and was later discovered to have not existed.

Originally Published July 28, 2009; Last Updated February 05, 2010; Last Republished February 05, 2010:

Our National Academy of Sciences Committee on Smoking Cessation in Military and Veteran Populations; Institute of Medicine is out with a new publication on Combating Tobacco Use in Military and Veteran Populations 2009. "Recommendation: Tobacco use should be banned on military installations, and in all military aircraft, all surface vehicles, and all ships and submarines."1

Cigarette smoking on a submarine is no trivial matter due to a submarine’s closed environment; recirculation of “scrubbed atmosphere”; smoke aerosol; 3,800 chemicals found in cigarettes²; and harm to our submariners’ health³.

A submarine’s central atmosphere monitoring system (CAMS) continuously samples⁴ the submarine’s atmosphere using infrared spectrometer to measure carbon monoxide and a mass spectrometer to measure oxygen, nitrogen, carbon dioxide, hydrogen, water vapor, and freon⁵.

Of course cigarette smoking is not the only source of potentially harmful chemicals on a submarine—other sources include cooking; human body; equipment; power train; weapons systems; batteries; sanitary tanks; air-conditioning; refrigeration systems; and a variety of maintenance and repair activities.

... you have to cook the Cajun blackened red fish slightly different than you would at home—lest you create an atmospheric emergency instead of an epicurean delight!

Res⁶:

• UPDATED 01/27/2010 NAP, Secondhand Smoke Exposure and Cardiovascular Effects: Making Sense of the Evidence (2010)
• UPDATED 01/27/2010 The Health Consequences of Involuntary Exposure to Tobacco Smoke: A Report of the Surgeon General
• NAP, Emergency and Continuous Emergency and Continuous Exposure Limits for Selected Airborne Contaminants, Vol 1
• NAP, Emergency and Continuous Exposure Guidance Levels for Selected Submarine Contaminants, Vol 2

Web:

• UPDATED 02/05/2010 UPI, Individual risk helps smokers quit.

  Research indicates that giving our submariners that smoke cigarettes specific data from their medical tests indicating impairment to their health will help them quit (e.g. data from their lung capacity tests).

-----notes------

1. This is not the first time an Academy committee has recommended a ban on submarine smoking—clearly the trend is toward encouraging cessation and an eventual ban.

Currently submarine smoking is permitted in accordance with SECNAV Instruction 5100.13E(5) Submarines, July 31, 2008:

"Tobacco-use areas may be designated aboard submarines following the guidance of reference (e) [NAVSEA S9510-AB-ATM-010, Nuclear Powered Submarine Atmosphere Control Manual; Volume 1(U), Rev 2]. These spaces must be well ventilated and not in the vicinity of stationary watch stations. Berthing spaces, messes, lounges, and exercise areas shall not be designated as tobacco use areas. The number of smoking tobacco users authorized to use a designated tobacco use area at one time shall be limited by the clearance capacity of the ventilation system."

Jackman et al. (2004) found that exposure of nonsmokers to secondhand smoke on submarines was minimal during a 10-day deployment (Jackman et al., 2004). Seufert and Kiser (1996), however, found that after 62 hours in a nonventilated submerged submarine the end-expiratory carbon monoxide (EECO)levels of nonsmoking crew members were equal to the initial EECO levels of crew members who smoked suggesting that nonsmokers were exposed to elevated levels of carbon monoxide.

2. Including CO and CO₂—each smoked cigarette produces 0.026-0.07 grams of CO (carbon monoxide).

3. The percentage of submariners smoking cigarettes has declined over the last twenty-five years from ranges of 30%-40% to 20%-30%.

A recent survey across a number of submarine crews and patrols found the average self-reporting smoking rate to be 11%. (see Terry L. Thomas et al., "Health of U.S. Navy Submarine Crew During Periods of Isolation". Aviation, Space, and Environmental Medicine, Vol. 74, No. 3, March 2003)

UPDATED 07/28/2009 Commissioned smokers 2.2% (N=1,389); Non-Commissioned smokers 14.4% (N=11,952); Smoking status Unknown 2.6% (N=36) and 2.9% (N=344), respectively. These low percentages are very encouraging: they are overall much lower than the general smoking population; low among non-commissioned submariners; and very low among commissioned submariners (encouraging directly and indirectly cessation of smoking).

There are some data to suggest that smoking and radiation exposure are augmentative with respect to lung cancer—of course it is well known that each independently cause lung cancer, too.

4. The CAMS samples air from different locations in addition to monitoring the main fan room containing the huge blower. The blower can be configured to intake, exhaust, or recirculate air atmosphere. (as an aside it can also be used to blow air into the ballast tanks!)

5. Other chemicals, substances, and compounds may be monitored using simple techniques such as calibrated color-metric tubes.

6. Post is substantially based on information from these publications—a wealth of information on the topic of submarine atmosphere.

Originally Published December 05, 2009; Last Updated February 03, 2010; Last February 03, 2010:

New START treaty negotiations enter the eighth round with leaders of both nations (U.S. and Russia) pledging to honor the recently expired START treaty until the new treaty can be finished.

Perhaps the negotiators will finish on December 08, 2009, the anniversary of President Dwight D. Eisenhower's 1953 "Atoms for Peace" speech to the United Nations where he said to the world:

"...The United States would seek more than the mere reduction or elimination of atomic materials for military purposes.

It is not enough to take this [nuclear?] weapon out of the hands of the soldiers. It must be put into the hands of those who will know how to strip its military casing and adapt it to the arts of peace.

...To hasten the day when fear of the atom will begin to disappear from the minds of people, and the governments of the East and West, there are certain steps that can be taken now.

...To the making of these fateful decisions, the United States pledges before you--and therefore before the world--its determination to help solve the fearful atomic dilemma--to devote its entire heart and mind to find the way by which the miraculous inventiveness of man shall not be dedicated to his death, but consecrated to his life...."--President Eisenhower--

Web:

• UPDATED 02/03/2010 UPI, Russian lawmaker coordinating nuke pact.

• UPDATED 01/04/2010 NTI, Putin Says U.S. Missile Shield Plan Harms Arms Control Efforts pact-report.

  It seems Russia's prime minister is engaging in a process negotiators call "nibbling"—you've achieved a deal you can live with, but want to test if you can gain anything more —news reports indicate there are no further crumbs to be nibbled.

  Ninth round to begin shortly...perhaps the negotiators can finish quickly and begin negotiating what to do about the possibility of colliding with asteroid 99942 Apophis

• UPDATED 12/18/2009 Reuters, Russia, U.S. agree outline nuclear pact-report.

  Fantastic—now on to the "real" reductions and "global zero"!

• UPDATED 12/17/2009 NYT, Nearing New Arms Pact, U.S. and Russia Look Beyond It.

• UPDATED 12/09/2009 UPI, Ban calls for action ahead of NPT summit.

  The Secretary General praised Moscow and Washington for their new START negotiations—urging continued momentum and pursuit of parallel reduction negotiation tracks:

  "The world should pursue several related measures, including eliminating others' weapons of mass destruction; combating (weapons of mass destruction) terrorism; and bans on missiles, space weapons,...We also must not lose sight of conventional weapons disarmament."--UPI quoting Ban Ki-moon--

• UPDATED 12/09/2009 Barents Observer, Also for our Barents safety
• BBC, New Start likely in US-Russia nuclear talks
• BBC, US and Russia pledge nuclear missile treaty soon

Originally Published March 10, 2009; Last Updated February 05, 2010; Last Republished January 30, 2010:

United States maritime surveillance ship USNS Impeccable (T-AGOS 23)¹ was harassed by a handful of smaller Chinese ships while openly conducting operations in the South China Sea, approximately 75 nautical miles south of Hainan Island, China (aerial map). Operations were well outside China's 12 mile territorial waters as defined by United Nations Conventions on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

The harassment is more indicative of pirates' behavior than what is expect from a professional PLA Navy and its sailors—at one point the Chinese ships blocked passage and pretended to ram (“playing chicken”) the USNS Impeccable. The Chinese ship came within 75 25 yards feet³ of the USNS Impeccable, which responded by spraying the ships with its fire hoses.

This is not the first time² China has wrongfully asserted its territorial 12 mile rights within its 200 mile economic rights zone—within 12 mile the “right of transit” does not include surveillance and mapping rights—outside 12 miles the "right of transit" does include surveillance and mapping rights.

In addition to the formal protest, these unnecessary provocations can be put on the agenda of the recently restarted China-American military-military talks and working group.

Web:

• UPDATED 02/05/2010 Economist, By fits and starts. Mostly fits right now.

  Unfortunately China leaders like our leaders will tend toward stoking the nationalism rhetoric. The rhetoric can be dangerous because it substitutes emotional appeasement for doing the heavy lifting required for long-term sustainable solutions.

  Many times leaders of a nation cynically use nationalism believing they can control the passions. But such passions are difficult to control once stoked.

  Citizens in both China and America must condemn any effort by our leaders to substitute nationalism for the hard work of ensuring sustainable global growth.

  Protectionism or terminating dialogue or inflammatory rhetoric regardless of the differences or disagreements are nationalistic and impede sustainable global growth.

• UPDATED 01/30/2010 Reuters, China threatens U.S. with sanctions on Taiwan arms and U.S. Regrets China's Response to Arms Sales.

  U.S. to fill Taiwan's purchase order (see DID, Taiwan’s (Un?)Stalled Force Modernization) for defensive systems to counter mainland missiles aimed at Taiwan and China's increased South and East China Seas assertiveness (some might say aggressiveness).

  Beyond routine and proforma expressions of displeasure China and the U.S. are expected to continue cooperation.

  It seems a little contradictory, if not bemusing that China would plead the ineffectiveness of sanctions on Iran's behalf and then threaten the use of sanctions against others.

  It's also difficult to see how stopping some China-U.S. military dialogue and cooperation is helpful.

• Other South China Sea (below southern tip of Taiwan) and East China Sea (above southern tip of Taiwan) Incidents:

  • UPDATED 01/23/2010 Economist, China's assertiveness at sea, Choppy waters.

  • UPDATED 01/14/2010 Time, China and Vietnam: Clashing Over an Island Archipelago.

    This is part of China's continuing efforts to expand and assert its sovereignty within the South China Sea (each habitable island comes with protected zones). If you use bullying or force to acquire or retain an island others are unlikely to recognize or honor the protected zones associated with that island.

    China's recent bullying of its smaller regional partner (Vietnam) is troubling—professing harmony while bullying is unseemly, unconvincing, and will only provoke push back.

• UPDATED 01/13/2010 ChinaDaily, US arms sale to Taiwan not to harm relations: analysts.

  China and the U.S may be learning how to continue cooperating in the face of disagreements.

  Exchanging the state actor's version of the schoolboy phraseology—"I'm gonna kick your ass"—then continue playing Ping-Pong.

  UPDATED 01/16/2010 Here's the diplomatic version:

  "Everyone's aware that China is a rising power of the 21st century,....But people want to see the United States fully engaged in Asia, so that as China rises the United States is there as a force for peace....What I'm expecting is that we actually are having a mature relationship,....That means that it doesn't go off the rails when we have differences of opinion."--WP quoting Secretary of State Hillary Clinton--

• UPDATED 08/27/2009 Reuters, China urges U.S. to halt surveillance near its shores

UPDATED 06/24/2009 China Daily, Disputes at sea float to surface Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, Michele Flournoy and delegation head to China for two-day routine confidence building military talks (10th Defense Consultative Talks). South China Sea, Korean Peninsula, Proliferation, and Pirates are likely to be among the agenda items.

• UPDATED 06/23/2009 BBC, China and US hold military talks.

• UPDATED 06/15/2009 Reuters, China sub collides with array towed by U.S. ship: report. U.S. gets ASW practice—China gets ASW counter-measure practice—a U.S. towed hydrophone array is lost in the process⁵.

  
  USGS Atlas Bathymetry - South China Sea⁴

  Wonder if these ASW encounters can be structured as joint exercises and thereby reduce the probability of future accidents⁵?

  • ChinaDaily, Sub, sonar collision 'inadvertent'

• UPDATED 05/07/2009 UPI, Chinese fishing vessels confront US ship.

  China and U.S. have agreed to disagree on what activity is permitted by convention in a nation's economic zone as opposed to its 12 limit. Each continuing to make their point in non-harmful or non-threatening ways (if somewhat lacking in professional seamanship).

  Significantly, the USS Victorious (a sibling of the Impeccable) was unaccompanied by any American warships and radioed to Chinese ships for help in warding off its two harassing vessels—both vessels left shortly after the radio call for help.

• UPDATED 03/20/2009 UPI, China ready to end standoff with U.S.. China-U.S. decide to focus on more cooperative matters and end the aggressive posturing—Yes!, 是的, shide
  • China Daily, Sino-US sea standoff appears to have ended
• UPDATED 03/14/2009 BBC, Who's right in South China Sea spat?.
• UPDATED 03/13/2009 UPI, Chinese criticize dispatch of destroyer.

• UPDATED 03/13/2009 StraitsTimes, Destroyers to escort US ships.

  United States destroyers will escort unarmed surveillance ships to ensure they are not harassed outside China's territorial space—first to ride shotgun is the Burke-class destroyer Crew & Family Website, USS Chung-Hoon (DDG-93) and NavSource, USS Chung-Hoon (DDG-93).

  

• UPDATED 03/12/2009 Reuters, Obama, China's Yang discuss global economic crisis and recent Impeccable incident.

  "The President also stressed the importance of raising the level and frequency of the U.S.- China military-to-military dialogue in order to avoid future incidents."--White House Blog, The President meets with Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi--

• UPDATED 03/12/2009 TaipeiTimes, Taiwan ‘driving Chinese military goals’. Certainly China is obsessed with Taiwan, but that begs the question, why?

  China likely feels "contained" and views Taiwan and their Texas size definition of sovereignty (China would like to define everything within the first island chain as sovereign China, not just the South China Sea.) as necessary to mitigate those feelings.

  The question keeping Admiral Keating up at night is whether China intends to impose their definition of sovereignty by force or consensus. The question keeping China up at night is how much it can provoke the United States without generating an all out China containment response—a disaster for both countries, but especially for China.

  In this context China's military opaqueness will increase distrust and surveillance missions. Transparency and candidness are keys to our mutually beneficial, and respectful partnership.

  Without transparency, candidness, and trust a mutually beneficial and respectful partnership is impossible—Keating will continue trying to figure out how many SSNs and SSBNs he has to sink should China miscalculate how much it can provoke the United States.

  Cute statements analogies about thiefs outside your bamboo fence are unlikely to be interpreted as transparency, candidness or trust.

• UPDATED 03/12/2009 WorldSocialist, Naval incidents highlight tense US-China relations.
• UPDATED 03/11/2009 Reuters, Obama to raise ships incident with China.

• UPDATED 03/11/2009 Xinhua/ChinaDaily, China lodges representation as U.S. naval ship breaks int'l, Chinese laws.

  • Xinhua/ChinaDaily, Defense Ministry urges U.S. to respect China's security concern.

• UPDATED 03/11/2009 BBC, US-China talks as sea row rumbles.

  Much of this can be attributed to China's inexperience relating to other nations—it's classic China to define sovereignty like Texans—then become offended when others ignore their Texas size definition of sovereignty.

  It seems beneficial that China has begun partnering and interacting with other nations, particularly us—its preference and tendency favors withdrawal behind walls where sovereignty and interaction can be strictly regulated, controlled, and limited.

  It also seems likely that there will be more periodic, inept, abrasiveness events as China figures out the quality and quantity of its global interaction—taking shots at responsible power nations is fun until you're a responsible power nation (then you squirt water with fire hoses instead of conducting oppressive campaigns and massacres).

  Ironically, a responsible power nation quickly learns just how little sovereignty they have—unless you define sovereignty as mess management and paying for the cost of mismanaged mess clean-up!

• UPDATED 03/10/2009 SFGate, Officials: US ship in China spat was hunting subs.
• UPDATED 03/10/2009 NPR, China Says U.S. Ship Was Operating Illegally.

• UPDATED 03/10/2009 Reuters, U.S.-China spat complicates minister's visit.

  National Intelligence Director Dennis Blair told the U.S. Congress the Chinese have become more assertive in staking claims to international waters around economic zones and were "more military, aggressive, forward-looking than we saw a couple years before" in Southeast Asia and the South China Sea.

  Blair said it was unclear whether Beijing would use its growing military power "for good or pushing people around."--Reuters quoting Blair--

• UPDATED 03/10/2009 NYT, China Says U.S. Provoked Naval Incident. This is similar to the general allegations and hand waving China made about the September 27, 2002 incident.
• UPDATED 03/10/2009 Reuters, China says US navy ship was breaking law-HK website.
• China Draws U.S. Protest Over Shadowing of Ships
• VOA, Chinese Vessels Harass US Ships in International Waters

Blog:

• UPDATED 03/10/2009 FAS Secrecy News, US, China, and Incidents at Sea. Focusing on agreements to prevent such maritime incidents from occurring.
• UPDATED 03/10/2009 FAS Strategic Security, US-Chinese Anti-Submarine Cat and Mouse Game in South China Sea.

-----notes-----

1. The USNS Impeccable is one of five non-military surveillance and mapping ships from the United States Military Sealift Command’s 25 ships Special Ships Program. It’s general characteristics are: displacement: - 5,368 long tons; length - 281.5 feet; beam - 95.8 feet; draft - 26 feet; speed- 12.0 knots; Crew 25 civilian mariners.

The purpose of the surveillance is likely to aid in regional littoral submarine and anti-submarine warfare should war occur between China and the United States or a regional ally.

Fortunately, China and United States are currently increasing their dialogue and searching for ways to increase military transparency and engage in confidence building cooperation.

2. On March 24, 2001, in the Yellow Sea near South Korea, a PLA Navy Jianghu III-class frigate passed as close as 100 yards to a U.S. surveillance ship, the USNS Bowditch, and a PLA reconnaissance plane shadowed it. (CRS Report RL32496, FAS Website, U.S.-China Military Contacts: Issues for Congress, Updated February 2008)

On September 27, 2002 China complained again about the non-military surveillance ship USNS Bowditch (T-AGS 62) mapping the Yellow Sea littorals (NYT, China Complains About U.S. Surveillance Ship

The South China Sea is a “sensitive area” primarily because of its potential for natural resources (gas and oil), long running disputes over territorial rights claims to some of the many islands (see Reuters, FACTBOX-South China Sea's disputed maritime borders), Taiwan’s independence, and its submarine base located inside Hainan Island.

The Yellow Sea is a "sensitive area" primarily because of ship building, including submarines, submarine base and the potential for using the Yellow Sea as a submarine bastion for China's ballistic missile submarines (SSBN).

3. Both the NYT and Reuters are now reporting 25 feet not yards.

4. Acoustically this is a very challenging environment requiring a significant amount of surveying, mapping, and modeling to understand.

5. It's likely not an accident that China is interfering with surveying and mapping by destroying the towed acoustical array. China’s efforts to interfere with transparent surveying and mapping of international waters seem counter productive, unnecessarily confrontational, irresponsible, unprofessional, and potentially fatal to both the submarine and submariners.

Originally Published January 22, 2010; Last Updated January 26, 2010; Last Republished January 22, 2010:

The submarine USS Los Angeles (SSN 688), the first Los Angeles-class submarine is scheduled to be decommissioned in Los Angeles, California tomorrow, January 23, 2010. Los Angeles-class submarines will be scheduled for decommissioning over the forthcoming decades as Virginia-class submarines are commissioned.

Web:

• UPDATED 01/26/2010 NavyMil, USS Los Angeles Decommissions at the Port of Los Angeles
• UPDATED 01/26/2010 LAT, Submarine Los Angeles is decommissioned from active fleet
• JOHN BOGERT: Some facts about the USS Los Angeles, that submarine over there

Originally Published May 08, 2009; Last Updated January 21, 2010; Last Republished January 21, 2010:

The Dolphin Foundation has announced 30 Dolphin Scholars for 2009—helping our young adults of our submariners attend our colleges and universities. See the foundation's websites for eligibility requirements and how to apply and information on how to help. Web:

• UPDATED 01/21/2010 Dolphin Scholarship, Applicant Screening - Step 1

  It's not to early to consider submitting your application for a 2010 dolphin scholarship.
  

  • It seems beneficial for our navy and submarine commands to integrate scholarship programs with navy online tutor programs to ensure one-click:

    • no cost or extremely low cost; and
    • seamless (online and offline); and
    • continuous (24/7/365); and
    • contiguous; and
    • all level (K-PostDoc); and
    • all discipline (emphasizing STEM); and
    • rigorous; and
    • lifetime

    educational opportunities for our submariners and their families.

• UPDATED 07/09/2009 The Periscope, Sub officers' wives name scholarship for auctioneer
• Dolphin, Dolphin Scholarship Foundation announces selection of new scholars

Originally Published May 31, 2008; Last Updated January 19, 2010; Last Republished January 19, 2010:

Early this week the HMS Superb (S109), a Swiftsure-class (4,900 tons, submerged) fast-attack British submarine crashed into undersea rocks in the northern Red Sea.

The crew is reportedly unharmed and the boat is watertight and navigating under reactor power. Her sonar dome has been crushed, preventing safe underwater navigation.

Figure eights¹ all the way home is not a pleasant experience for a nuclear submarine crew, made especially unpleasant by their having run a ground.

Web:

• UPDATED 01/19/2010 Telegraph, Royal Navy commander admits crashing nuclear submarine
• Clyde nuclear submarine hits rocks in Red Sea

-----notes-----

1. On the surface a submarine's bow rises and rolls with each wave then lowers and rolls between waves, creating a figure eight. Submariners not accustom to this motion will get sea-sick, a most unpleasant feeling.

The Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) Gary Roughead is implementing our navy's new recruiting slogan, "A Global Force for Good" by speedily providing relief efforts in Haiti—he thanked our sailors (mp3) for their professional, proficient, efficient, and ongoing efforts.

Twit: UPDATED 01/19/2010 NavyNews Haiti-relief

Web: NavyMil, UPDATE: U.S. Navy Delivers Assistance, Capabilities to Unified Response

Originally Published November 13, 2009; Last Updated January 14, 2010; Last Republished January 14, 2010:

President Obama heads for Asia²—engaging China in a big and bold way is on his agenda—our White House is providing coverage¹.

Longtime China hand and specialist Orville Schell well summarizes the state of the current China-U.S. relationship:

"...so fraught with attraction and repulsion, love and hate, contempt and worship" that the two countries can perhaps never be truly relaxed partners. "But we are [at?] least co-dependents, or perhaps co-victims, because our common fate is more and more inescapable."--WP, quoting Orville Schell--

Web:

• UPDATED 01/14/2010 The Diplomat, China’s Not a Superpower.

• UPDATED 11/20/2009 NPR FreshAir, After Obama Visit, Assessing U.S.-China Relations. (mp3 download)

  NPR's Fresh Air, Terry Gross interviews Orville Schell from China—primarily focused on energy and energy emissions.

• UPDATED 11/20/2009 PBS NewsHour, U.S., China Redefine Relationship During Obama's Asia Tour.

  • UPDATED 11/20/2009 PBS NewsHour, U.S., China Explore Deeper Ties as Partners, Contenders.
• UPDATED 11/18/2009 WP, Obama pushes China on currency, human rights.

  • UPDATED 11/18/2009 WP, Photos of Obama travels to Asia.

    An American president arriving for an official visit will always know he's in a friendly country because protesters and the official welcoming delegation provide the greetings.

  • UPDATED 11/19/2009 CSM, Photos of Obama travels China
  • UPDATED 11/19/2009 WH, China through the Lens of the White House Photographer
• UPDATED 11/17/2009 UPI, U.S., China list joint clean energy plans.

• UPDATED 11/17/2009 Reuters, China hails U.S. reiteration of sovereignty over Taiwan.

  It’s time for both China and U.S. to stop reiterating and start jointly reacting to solve our serious global issues.

  Is there a serious thinker that believes either nation or our world will gain if China and America spend the next decade "gaming each other" while opaquely seeking too gain advantage? If so let's hear from them.

  Instead of America building 13 carrier battle groups let’s encourage and help China build one (use the Russian carrier as a trainer). See what they can learn to do with it and whether we can “get by” with just 12 carrier groups.

• UPDATED 11/17/2009 Reuters, Obama prods China on yuan but Hu silent on issue
• UPDATED 11/16/2009 People's Daily Online 人民网, President Obama's face-to-face with Chinese Youth.
  • UPDATED 11/17/2009 UPIAsia, Obama gets a taste of Chinese censorship
  • People's Daily Online 人民网, Pictures Obama talks with Chinese youths
  • NYT, Obama Pushes Rights With Chinese Students

• UPDATED 11/15/2009 Reuters, China-U.S. spar over currencies ahead of Obama visit.

  Our president hasn't even made it to Shanghai yet and already the discussions are focusing on the relevant issues—an encouraging omen for difficult, respectful, transparent, and direct discussions on many tough issues.

  "...So the United States does not seek to contain China, nor does a deeper relationship with China mean a weakening of our bilateral alliances. On the contrary, the rise of a strong, prosperous China can be a source of strength for the community of nations.

  And so in Beijing and beyond, we will work to deepen our strategic and economic dialogue, and improve communication between our militaries. Of course, we will not agree on every issue, and the United States will never waver in speaking up for the fundamental values that we hold dear -- and that includes respect for the religion and cultures of all people -- because support for human rights and human dignity is ingrained in America. But we can move these discussions forward in a spirit of partnership rather than rancor...."--Obama's Tokyo Speech--

Pod:

• UPDATED 11/14/2009 CFR, China 2025: Keynote I: China’s Rise: Strategic Implications for Asia (16M mp3 or stream). Keynote by Aaron L. Friedberg—be sure to listen to exchange between Simon Tay (primarily cooperative model) and Aaron Friedberg (primarily confrontation model) at the very end of the stream or mp3.

YouTube:

• Project 2049 Institute sponsored CFR China 2025 - Maryanne Kivlehan-Wise on Naval Power.

  Kivlehan-Wise is a teammate with the Center for Naval Analysis, China Studies. She comments on China leadership's pursuit of strategic maritime interests:
  

  "...When I think of China looking out into the future, I see something different. I think we're unclear about China's intentions, because even China doesn't know where China is going. China's national interests have changed profoundly in the last 30 years. Indeed, they've changed a great deal in the last 10 years for that matter. And the leadership in Beijing is still grappling with the implications of these changes...." --Kivlehan-Wise--

• Project 2049 Institute sponsored CFR China 2025; Minxin Pei appeared on one of a series of panels discussing various aspects of China:

  "The only thing rising faster than China is the hype about China." --Minxin Pei--

• 
  Other Project 2049, China 2025 symposium YouTube videos

Blog:

• White House:
  • UPDATED 11/17/2009 WH, Full Video and Photos: The President's Town Hall in Shanghai

  • UPDATED 11/15/2009 WH, Shanghai Town Hall / 欧巴马总统在上海与青年面对面.

    The White House will stream the November 16, 2009 Shanghai Town Hall live over the Internet.

    As you might expect China's leadership is not yet comfortable with the idea of steaming or broadcasting our president live and uncensored directly to the Chinese people (see also Xinhua, Xinhuanet preparing for live broadcast of Obama's dialogue with Chinese youth).

  • WH, Staying in Touch During the Asia Trip

    WH, Journal President's Trip To Asia

• UPDATED 11/16/2009 LAT, Text of Obama's [Shanghai] town hall.

  President Obama at a Shanghai town hall with students, as provided by the White House.

• UPDATED 11/16/2009 CDT, Obama China Visit 2009 Posts

-----notes-----

1. It would be wonderful (not to mention beneficial) if our White House used this opportunity to hold a "introductory symposium" on China's fascinating history, culture, and citizens—complete with video; audio; photos; informational downloads and links; multimedia presentation; news integration and analysis; and trip highlights.

2. Those interested in an overview of Asia issues from America's perspective may find a Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) conference call (16M mp3) on Obama's Asia trip interesting.

CFR speakers include: Evan A. Feigenbaum, Senior Fellow for East, Central, and South Asia; and Joshua Kurlantzick, Fellow for Southeast Asia; and Sheila A. Smith, Senior Fellow for Japan Studies.

• UPDATED 11/15/2009 In Tokyo, Our Common Future. Includes link to Obama's near perfect Tokyo speech with Chinese, Indonesian, Japanese Korean translations:

  ...So I want everyone to know, and I want everybody in America to know, that we have a stake in the future of this region, because what happens here has a direct effect on our lives at home. This is where we engage in much of our commerce and buy many of our goods. And this is where we can export more of our own products and create jobs back home in the process. This is a place where the risk of a nuclear arms race threatens the security of the wider world, and where extremists who defile a great religion plan attacks on both our continents. And there can be no solution to our energy security and our climate challenge without the rising powers and developing nations of the Asia Pacific...."--Obama Tokyo Speech--

Originally Published April 04, 2008; Last Updated January 13, 2010; Last Republished January 12, 2010:

Russian News and Information Agency is reporting that Admiral Vladimir Vysotsky (CINC, Russian Navy) expects the new Borey class, SSBN Yuri Dolgoruky will begin sea trials during the second half of 2008 (July-November).

The admiral expressed optimism, as only admirals can, that the submarine's new ballistic missile (Bulava-M; NATO ID SS-NX-30) will overcome its technical problems:

"The missile will fly, and will fly this year,..."--Admiral Vysotsky--

Web:

• UPDATED 01/13/2010 AviationWeek, New Russian Subs Await Missiles
• UPDATED 01/12/2010 RIANovosti, Design flaw caused latest test failure of Bulava missile - source

• UPDATED 12/11/2009 Reuters, Russian nuclear missile test fails, visible in Norway.

  The New Scientist (NS) is reporting that a missile losing guidance can produce the observed spiral.

  TASS is reporting that Russia's new SSBN Borei-class submarine Dmitry Donskoi (Donskoy) did launch a fourth generation Bulava-30 ICBM (aka RSM-56; Bulava-M; Topol-M; SS-27; NATO SS-NX-30; maximum 10 reentry vehicles) that failed in its third boost stage (liquid fueled engine; stages one and two are solid fuel).

• UPDATED 10/06/2009 ITAR, Russia’s new submarine complete series of tests at sea.

  The Bulava-M is still suffering significant technical difficulties and setbacks?

  • Bulava missile: test-launch history
• UPDATED 08/14/2009 Reuters, Russia could scrap troubled sea missile: report
• UPDATED 12/24/2008 MoscowTimes, Test of Bulava Missile Fails for the 5th Time
• UPDATED 12/03/2008 BarentsObserver, Russia starts serial production of “Bulava” missiles
• UPDATED 11/22/2008 UPI, New Russian sub ready for sea trials
• UPDATED 11/14/2008 RIA Novosti, Bulava missile test: insistent mistake making?
• UPDATED 09/18/2008 AFP, Russia test-fires new-generation strategic missile
• WikiMapia of Severodvinsk Aerial view of shipyard, including what is thought to be Yuri Dolgoruky (Project 955) in a floating drydock.
• Russia to complete tests of Bulava-M missile in 2008