Halibut Hangar

Yesterday, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman, Admiral Mike Mullen speaking at Kansas State University, Landon Lecture Series urged our policymakers to revisit the force-diplomacy balance, a little faster:

"...My fear, quite frankly, is that we aren’t moving fast enough in this regard. U.S. foreign policy is still too dominated by the military, too dependent upon the generals and admirals who lead our major overseas commands1. It’s one thing to be able and willing to serve as emergency responders; quite another to always have to be the fire chief."--JCS quoting, Admiral Mullen--

Our nation must speedily eliminate concepts like "Commander in Chief" and "I'm the Decider" and use more accurate descriptors like First Responder in Chief and I'm the Negotiator, respectively.

Nice that our Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman (JCSC) is out encouraging our youngsters to reject static diplomatic-military bipolar thinking in favor of a dynamic continuum...it's likely many of our youngsters already have.

-----notes-----

1. Some of our policymakers have wrongly castigated our current and capable First Responder in Chief for his prescient emphasis on diplomacy and other tools.

Some are still clinging to a nonextant unitary executive acting as commander in chief of a unipolar world, while unilaterally asserting, "I'm the decider" and "Mission Accomplished".

Originally published March 04, 2008, Last Updated March 03, 2010; Last Republished March 03, 2010:

Chinese Jin Class Type 094 SSBN Submarine

Blog:

• UPDATED 03/03/2010 FAS SSB, Jin SSBN Flashes its Tubes. Overhead of missile tube (3 and 4?) doors open.
• FAS SSB, New Chinese Ballistic Missile Submarine Spotted

Web:

• UPDATED 05/09/2008 NPR, China's Underground Submarine Base Scrutinized
• UPDATED 05/01/2008 Telegraph, Chinese build secret nuclear submarine base [Yulin]. See Wikimapia for aerial picture of China's Yulin SubBase entrance at Sanya, Hainan Peninsula.
• Wikipedia, Type 094 submarine

Originally Published December 31, 2009; Last Updated March 01, 2010; Last Republished March 01, 2010:

During our period of shrinking budgets; finite resources; prioritized threats; and difficult choices we can expect and should welcome passionate persuasive augments by our military components and their advocates.

But, passionate persuasion must not yield to disjointed hyperbolic speculation or propaganda such as that expressed in How the United States Lost the Naval War of 2015.

Kraska spins his speculative China hegemon fairytale out of Erickson and Yang's recent article on China's investigation of using a conventional terminally controllable tactical reentry vehicle as a "carrier killer".

The fairytale operationalizes Yang and Erickson's carrier killer², liberally sprinkles in a "handful" of Chinese carriers (one couldn't be built by 2015), shakes in some "quieter than Los Angeles-class" diesel Song submarines, adds a decade late pinch of "stealthy" AIP Yuan submarine, and casts a paralyzing spell over all counter-measures, defenses, and ASW operations³.

The Chinese Communist Party's desires for unification under communist party rule, expansive Law of the Sea Convention interpretation, and Southeast Asia hegemonic aspirations seem pretty clear. What's unclear is whether the Chinese Communist Party leadership seeks any war with the United States to address these issues, much less the War of 2015.

Unfortunately, Kraska's fairytale⁴ does little to help clarify these issues. Wonder how the Kraska fairytale changes if we assume China's increased military budgets have more to do with domestic control than preparation for the War of 2015 with its biggest trading partner and debtor.

Web:

• UPDATED 03/01/2010 CSBA, Why AirSea Battle? (pdf).

  Another shot (weak pun) at the China AntiShip Ballistic Missile (ASBM) story—this one is a slightly more circumspect version of Kraska's Story within the context of some interesting China-Iran Anti-Access/Area-Denial conjecture.

  The author, Andrew F. Krepinevich, appears to cite the now familiar Yang and Erickson article for the proposition that the ASBM exists:

  "...Perhaps the most notable Chinese addition is the anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM).³⁹" @ page 18 [footnote 39 is to Yang and Erickson]

  But then later more accurately states:

  "...To be sure, even if the PRC has a capable ASBM, a targeting system is still required to enable the [≈ mach 10+] reentry vehicle to hone in on its [highly mobile and heavily defended] target. Fielding the ISR [intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance] component for its ASBM force represents a challenging task for the PLA...." @ page 19 [added to original text]

  This type of general conjecture is routine and near ubiquitous within our defense industry, military components, and intelligence sectors seeking to understand and forecast the next "threat and enemy" (eventually we'll figure out that needing a "threat and enemy" is the threat and enemy).

  But, care must be taken when reading these general conjecture articles to ensure that repetitive general conjecture is not mistaken for specific and complete evidence.

  Otherwise the repetitive general conjecture becomes the a "threat and enemy".

• UPDATED 02/10/2010 UPI, China says no hegemonic intention.

  Statements of national intentions are of course important and necessary, but insufficient without the accompanying transparent and confirming participation and cooperation for international growth and stability.

  It's no longer desirable or feasible for an authoritarian nation, particularly the size of China, to shout non-hegemonic intentions from behind walls. China’s authoritarian communist party must eliminate walls, move with all diligent speed toward a civil society, and begin shouldering a portion of the heavy burden of ensuring global stability and growth.
  

  • UPDATED 02/20/2010 The Diplomat, Why China’s Naval Rise Could Help the World

    "There's much more reason to be positive...I do think China wants to fit into the 'global commons.' We just have to be careful [sic: too?] make sure they see we are trying to treat them as equals."--Diplomat quoting Eric Wertheim, US naval analyst and author of Combat Fleets of the World--

• UPDATED 02/10/2010 ExpressIndia, China's anti-ship missile not a threat: Navy chief. Interesting comments from India's Admiral Nirmal Verma on the use of a ballistic anti-ship missile:

  "...Some event [sic] talk about carrying out land-based missile attacks against an aircraft carrier. We must weigh this against the difficulties of targeting a mobile target out at sea,...

  ...Should an adversary manage to evade a plethora of air, surface and sub-surface escorts and be capable of hitting a carrier, sinking it or putting a carrier out of action is by no means easy"--Express India quoting Admiral Verma--

• UPDATED 01/11/2010 WSJ OpEd, The Taiwan Arms-Sales Equation.

  "Cross-strait relations won't progress peacefully unless Taipei can defend itself from a Chinese attack."

• UPDATED 12/31/2009 UPI, China's navy mulls push into Arabian Sea.

  • UPDATED 01/02/2010 UPI, China has no plans for African Navy base.
  • Wikimapia Aerial Map, CoCo Island, Burma
  • Wikimapia Aerial Map, Gwadar, Pakistan
  • Wikimapia Aerial Map, Hambantota, Sri Lanka

-----notes-----

1. Kraska is careful to state that the views expressed in his article do not represent or reflect official U.S. Navy or Department of Defense policy. But, then goes on to indulge speculation, unproven facts, undocumented data, and liberal assumptions uncharacteristic of a navy, Law of the Sea specialist.

2. UPDATED 01/17/2010 Kraska refers to the DF-21 which has an open-source circular error of probability estimated range of 300-400 meters (see FAS, DF-21 / CSS-5 and SinoDefense, DongFeng 21 (CSS-5) Medium-Range Ballistic Missile, and John Lewis and Hua Di, China's Ballistic Missile Programs, International Security, Fall 1992 Vol. 17, No. 2, 3M pdf and Wikipedia, Ballistic Missiles, China and en.interpretation of Chinese blog providing the early speculation on a DF-21 antiship variant).

It's unclear whether terminal course correction of a fast moving reentry vehicle is even feasible. And if feasible whether it's practical for use against a highly mobile and defended target like an aircraft carrier. Not to mention the nuclear retaliatory risks inherent in using a ballistic weapon for conventional tactical purposes

Distinguish the rare anti-ship ballistic missile from the common anti-ship cruise missile (e.g. Tomahawk, Sizzler, Sunburn, Club etc.)

3. It’s likely the waters within the first string of pearls are more “acoustically wired” and monitored than a Cold War Soviet embassy.

4. It should be noted that our military officers below the level of flag (admiral) generally are not expected to think in the diplomatic terms of balancing cooperation with confrontation.

However, Kraska seems to mock cooperation and partnership and assume confrontation—fortunately Kraska is not a navy flag officer.

Originally Published September 25, 2009; Last Updated March 10, 2010; Last Republished February 28, 2010:

Periodically the stars align; the four stars—both Joint Chief Chairman Admiral Michael Mullen, and Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) Admiral Gary Roughead have unequivocally expressed publicly¹, support for integrating women into our vital, capable, and challenging submarine force.

Women choosing to serve our nation as submariners² will meet these challenges and improve the capabilities of our submarine force in the process.

Today, Secretary of Navy Ray Mabus ratified the four stars saying:

"This is something the CNO (chief of naval operations) and I have been working on since I came into office,...

We are moving out aggressively on this. I believe women should have every opportunity to serve at sea, and that includes aboard submarines,..."--AFP quoting Mabus--

Res:

• UPDATED 02/28/2010 Congressional testimony of Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Gary Roughead (pdf) on February 24, 2010:

  "...The Secretary of the Navy and I are in the process of changing the Navy policy that restricts women from serving aboard our submarines. This move will enable our Navy and, specifically, our submarine force to leverage the tremendous talent and potential of our female officers and enlisted personnel. Initial integration will include female officers assigned to ballistic missile (SSBN) and guided missile (SSGN) submarines, since officer accommodations on these submarines have more available space and appear to require less modification. The plan also integrates female supply corps officers onto SSBNs and SSGNs at the department head level. We are planning the first female submarine officer candidate accessions into the standard nuclear training and submarine training pipelines this year, making it possible to assign the first women to submarines as early as FY 2012. Integration of enlisted females on SSBNs and SSGNs and integration of officer and enlisted female personnel on attack submarines (SSNs) will occur later, once the extent of necessary modifications is determined. This initiative has my personal attention and I will continue to keep you informed as we integrate these highly motivated and capable officers into our submarine force...."-CNO, Admiral Gary Roughead--

  It's unclear why women cannot be assigned earlier than 2012 by tapping women already through nuclear power training.

  Perhaps the not insignificant psychological adjustments of permenant coed crews prefer a slower pace to integrating our women into submarines.

  It's a nice touch to include the ever flexible and savvy senior supply corps officer as female—it's only slightly less painful to piss-off the supply officer instead of the captain.

Web:

• UPDATED 03/10/2010 TheCapital, Female USNA grads may soon be on subs.

  The article also mentions our new commandant of midshipmen and a likely stand-alone navy cyber-command.

  Our submarines and submariners (male and female) will play a huge and hugely interesting role in the stand-alone cyber-command.

• UPDATED 02/23/2010 AFPS, Women to Serve on Subs, Gates Tells Congress and UPDATED 02/26/2010 NavyMil, Academy Women to Become First Female Submariners

  Pentagon spokesman has confirmed that the SecDef has notified Congress (February 19, 2010) of its intention to assign women to submarines, triggering a 30 day waiting period. Next up...a group of women officers crossing the gangway of an Ohio-class submarine to report aboard for duty.

  SecDef and Wife12

• UPDATED 11/22/2009 The Capital, Female mids eager for submarine duty

  Up to seven academy seniors could be among first women aboard submarines—a senior female officer from our Naval Reserves or other source will likely accompany each set of female midshipmen aboard at least one (hopefully more) Ohio-class submarine.

  Thereafter, women submariners will begin increasing exponentially as the "pioneering seven" mentor and train other female submariners.

  Old Discovery Channel Program on Ohio-class USS Nebraska SSBN-739:

• UPDATED 10/12/2009 NavyTimes, Female sailors could join sub crews by 2011

  Admiral Kirkland Donald is Director, Naval Nuclear Propulsion—participates in the selection and screening of submarine officers. Vice Admiral Donnelly is Commander, Submarine Force—responsible for US submarines and crews.

  The Navy is moving all ahead two-thirds10 (2 ⁄ 3rd's), with integrating women into our submarine force at all levels and rates. Donnelly does some "out loud thinking" on how the integration might proceed once he receives the order to move ahead at full-speed—it's apparent he's been thinking about the topic. Donnelly seems particularly sensitive to ensuring our women submariners are successfully integrated at all levels and rates with a minimum number of hatch head bruises and shin scrapes.

• UPDATED 10/09/2009 DoDNews, Women 'Soon' Will Serve on Submarines, Navy Secretary Says.

  Navy video excerpt of SecNav's appearance on Jon Stewart discussing women on submarines.

• UPDATED 10/07/2009 Seacoast Online, Women could soon serve on subs.

  "I welcome the Navy's decision to allow female sailors to serve on submarines."--Seacoast quoting, US Senator Susan Collins (R-ME)--

• UPDATED 10/06/2009 Honolulu Advertiser, Navy says women will be allowed to serve on submarines.

  A submarine pipe...line:

  • Naval Academy (College/University)
  • Nuclear Power Training
    • Basic Nucleonics Theory; six months
  • Prototype Nuclear Power Training
    • Hands-on A Submarine Reactor; six months
  • Submarine School Basic Course
    • Submarine Anatomy; three months
  • Submarine Sea Duty
    • (Getting Your Dolphins and learning how submarines "really" work; ≈ twenty-four months)
  • Engineering Examinations
  • Submarine Officer Advanced Course; six months
  • Submarine Sea Duty
  • Prospective Executive Officer Course; 3 months
    • ≤ 14 years of commission service
  • Submarine Sea Duty
  • Prospective Commanding Officer Course; six months
  • First Female US Navy Submarine Driver
    • ≤ 18 years of commission service
  • First "Big Navy Command" and Beyond
• WP, Navy Seeks to Allow Women to Serve on Submarines
• Reuters, U.S. military may lift ban on women in submarines
• NavyTimes, SecNav, CNO: Women should serve on subs
• Stars and Stripes, Navy ‘moving aggressively’ to allow women on subs
• MilitaryDotCom, Navy Set to Crew Subs with Female Sailors

Blog:

• UPDATED 10/07/2009 Kitsap Sun, OUR VIEW: Congress Should Allow Women to Serve on Subs.

  "All this may seem a radical notion, but it’s quite the contrary. Simply, it means that when the Navy is selecting officers and crew for its Trident subs, it will be able to choose from the best-qualified personnel, regardless of their sex. It’s not a matter of political correctness, but of common sense."--Kitsap, An SSBN Homeport--

• UPDATED 09/29/2009 US News&World Report, Group Cites Dangers of Submarine Air to Pregnant Women.

  Elaine Donnelly continues recycling mostly non-rigorous trivia from a 1995 SAIC report⁸, laughably calling it "definitive".

  Additionally, Donnelly tries to elevate legitimate general concerns expressed in 2000, by retired Navy hyperbaric doctor Rear Admiral Hugh P. Scott to established scientific facts⁴. Scott raises concerns that fetal development may be adversely impacted by a submarine's atmosphere and complications from pregnancy may necessitate evacuation of female submariners⁷.

  Yes a submarine's atmosphere is complex and contains many chemicals, Scott refers to 200 chemicals, but in cigarette smoke aerosol alone there are thousands⁶ of chemicals. Yes, some women (and men) may require emergency evacuation¹¹ during missions. Yes, women submariners may require researchers to extend and broaden their research. Yes, some women submariners will become pregnant, intentionally or unintentionally. Yes, some women will volunteer for submarines and subsequently choose to leave the submarine force. Yes, some women will have secret relations and sexual encounters both on board and on shore with other submariners (male and female).

  But, so what, none of these concerns is justification for denying our women the opportunity to become submariners.

  The women Donnelly's agenda represents will likely not volunteer for submarine duty. But, that does not mean other women should be deprived of the opportunity to serve their country as proud, proficient, and professional submariners, too⁹.

  It should also be noted that a woman does not have to be a feminist to be a great submariner or enjoy submarines, as Donnelly implies. You can just be a brilliant female engineer; weapons officer; navigator; sonar operator; linguist; intelligence officer; radioman; computer or network specialist; electronics technician; communications technician; doctor or medical practitioner; reactor operator; electrician; machinist; missile technician; torpedoman; diver; etc.

• UPDATED 09/27/2009 Bubblehead, Skimmer CJCS Supports Women On Submarines.

  Bubblehead's post has attracted a wide range of comments:

  • WCC: "...Late one night during my midnight tour as EDO I found her laying on top of the ESGN cabinet in control wrestling a ventilation hull valve out of the overhead which needed to be rebuilt. Single-handedly she pulled out that valve and carried it to the tender. The next day during the dinner hour she was again on top of the ESGN cabinet single-handedly re-installing the valve. This girl put most of the A-gangers to shame with her skill and determination to get the job done...Last year a young female Sailor was awarded a silver star for her actions in combat..." (WCC could have also mentioned that 100+ women have died serving our nation in the Iraq and Afghanistan Wars).
  • Karen³:"...I think that putting women into close confined quarters with males is a bad idea and ignores biology...When a woman is ovulating the phenomes she exudes change male behavior and make it hard for the male to think clearly..." (I was unaware it took phenomes to produce muddled male thinking—guess the mass spectrometer⁵ will now need to monitor phenome levels! Wonder what "scrubs" phenomes?)
  • STS:"...they could do it right now on a 688i without any modifications. just have the Chiefs move to foward [sic] berthing and give the Goat Locker to the girls. you could then call it the Vagina Vault..."

-----notes-----

1. Admiral Mullen, responding to a Senate Armed Services Committee question (Hearing Questions and Responses dated September 15, 2009):

Q: SASC "Do you believe any changes in the current policy are needed?"

A: Mullen "As an advocate for improving the diversity of our force, I believe we should continue to broaden opportunities for women. One policy I would like to see changed is the one barring their service aboard submarines."

Admiral Roughead statement Chief of Naval Operations, Adm Gary Roughead's official statement regarding women on submarines, dated September 24, 2009:

"...Having commanded a mixed gender surface combatant, I am very comfortable addressing integrating women into the submarine force. I am familiar with the issues as well as the value of diverse crews.

The Navy has examined the feasibility of assigning women to submarines over the years, and I have been personally engaged on this...--Roughead--

2. Perhaps a group of women, nine to 13 enlisted and three to five officers can be detailed to an in process VCS (e.g. USS Missouri SSN 780 or USS California SSN 781).

VCS submariners are assigned to the submarine they will initially crew and begin developing esprit de corps long before its keel enters the water.

The VCS sectional construction and amazing simulators enable its crewmembers to study, learn, and gain proficiency on its systems while the submarine is being manufactured!

Filling the pipeline with qualified women submariners will take some time. So, the first group of women will have to rely on each other and male mentors (most will be helpful) to become qualified. Eventually, a pool of qualified women submariners will be available to mentor other women submariners. After some years of adjustment a submariner's gender will become less and less of an issue.

A supportive and committed COB will be very important for smoothing out the periodic problems.

3. Phenome Alert Cartoon (couldn't resist Karen; see her above comment):

• UPDATED 10/29/2009 Hey, Karen some more ScienceNews on pheromones, this time it's male bed bugs exuding scent to tell other males, “whoa buddy I’m male”, better described in the October 24, 2009 issue of Animal Behavior:

  “Females [bed bugs] can release the substance when disturbed but typically don’t when grasped by a male, Ryne says. But males do exude the scent when grabbed by another male. After a whiff of the stuff, misguided suitors back off,”

  When you read how bed bugs reproduce you'll have an appreciation why a male would signal its gender. You might also wonder why a female bed bug would have sex at all.

  It never ceases to fascinate what fascinates others—the above paper was produced by a member of the Swedish Pheromone Group at the Lund University.

• Hey, Karen what do we do with this bit of ScienceNews better described in the October 15, 2009 issue of Nature:

  "...Normal male flies were more attracted to both male and female flies lacking pheromones than to normal females."

4. UPDATED 10/01/2009 It seems useful to note that when hyperbaric Navy doctor and qualified submariner Marilisa Elrod expressed support for women submariners during a 2009 Stars and Stripes interview Donnelly dismisses her as cavalier and misinformed.

Women submariners don't have to be "cavalier" or misinformed when they enter submarines or the macho world of submarine divers or the hyper-macho world of submarine mixed gas divers—they can just fit-in and be funny have a sense of humor.

Of course Donnelly is unlikely to ever understand a submarine diver's macabre and sometimes morbid sense of humor.

Neither is Donnelly ever likely to appreciate the ability to be humorous when you're responsible for a struggling diver on the other end of a mixed gas rig not responding as you expect or in the chamber, at depth in a life threatening state.

5. UPDATED 10/02/2009 In submarines a mass spectrometer is used to measure carbon dioxide levels (CO₂) and an infrared spectrometer (photometer) is used to measure carbon monoxide (CO) levels.

Our Navy in cooperation with the scientific community and National Academy periodically review, revise, and recommend submarine Emergency Exposure (EEGLs) and 90-Day Continuous Exposure (CEGLs) Level Guidelines for an increasing list of submarine contaminants.

The 2007 National Research Council (NRC) recommendations for CO₂ and CO can be found in Table S-1 of Emergency and Continuous Exposure Guidance Levels for Selected Submarine Contaminants Volume I; Subcommittee on Emergency and Continuous Exposure Guidance Levels for Selected Submarine Contaminants, Committee on Toxicology, National Research Council:

• Carbon Dioxide Exposure and Duration (all values ppm):

  • 1-hour: Current: 40,000; Navy Proposed: 30,000; NRC Recommended: 25,000
  • 24-hour: Cur: 40,000; Navy Prop: 15,000; NRC Rec: 25,000
  • 90-day Cur: 5,000; Navy Prop: 7,000; NRC Rec: 8,000

• Carbon Monoxide Exposure and Duration (all values ppm):

  • 1-hour: Cur: 400; Navy Prop: 55; NRC Rec: 180
  • 24-hour: Cur: 50; Navy Prop: 20; NRC Rec: 45
  • 90-day Cur: 20; Navy Prop: 10; NRC Rec: 9

6. UPDATED 10/02/2009 Submarine Air Quality: Monitoring the Air in Submarines, National Research Council, 1988 @ page 9.

"Approximately 3,800 chemicals have been identified in tobacco smoke but only 300-400 have been quantified (National Research Council, 1986a; Higgins et al., 1983, 1984; Grob, 1963)."--Submarine Air Quality--

Table C1-C3 of Appendix C from the above publication provides additional details on the composition of submarine main and side stream smoke, a major source of carbon monoxide.

7. UPDATED 10/03/2009 These issues and recommendations for further research are included in John L. Kane and Wayne G. Horn, The Medical Implications of Women On Submarines, 2001, Naval Submarine Medical Research Laboratory:

• Research Requirement Recommendations:

  • Submarine atmosphere effects study: Evaluation of the potentially toxic effects of submarine atmosphere contaminants and elevated carbon dioxide levels using multigenerational studies.
  • Bone health study: Animal and human research on bone health investigating the impact of elevated carbon dioxide, the absence of sunlight, and the relative inactivity of the submarine environment.
  • Epidemiological studies:
    • Initiation of an institutionalized submarine health surveillance program.
    • An evaluation of submariner morbidity and modeling studies on women’s medical care needs to determine the impact of increased health care utilization, risk of ectopic pregnancy, spontaneous abortion, and pregnancy on the submarine service.
    • Male submariner reproductive health study.
  • Medical care for women on submarines assessment: An assessment of additional medical supplies and equipment, fixture modifications, medical procedures planning, and need for an additional corpsman to ensure adequate medical care for women serving onboard submarines.
  • Submarine screening test modification: Research on modification and application of submarine duty psychological screen to females.
  • Training assessment: Review and assessment of submarine IDC [Independent Duty Corpsman] training curriculum and development of women’s health management algorithms.

8. UPDATED 10/03/2009 Submarine Assignment Policy Assessment, 1995, SAIC

9. UPDATED 10/03/2009 Canada's actual limited experience with women on submarines is instructive and contrasts sharply with the "predicted experience" of opponents to integrating women into our submarine force.

Amazingly simple, direct, and was actually written by a woman. See Lieutenant Commander Debbie Pestell, MD, Experiences with Mixed Gender Submarine Crews, 2003, Canadian Forces Health Services

"Interviews with female submariners about their experience serving in submarines reveals common themes: all are mature, experienced sailors who simply wish to be considered one of the crew, and do not want to be singled out because they are women. They are very professional and dedicated to their careers, and work hard to gain the respect of their male peers for their skills as submariners, not specifically as female submariners."

Canada uses integrated submarine bunking without problems, requires minimum attire of skivvies and a t-shirt, relies on curtains and professionalism for privacy, strictly prohibits fraternization, prohibits pregnant submariners from deploying, and women submariners are required to read and sign a Medical Advisory Statement for Women in Submarines describing potential impacts a submarine environment may present to a fetus.

10. UPDATED 10/13/2009 Admiral John C. Harvey, commander of the US fleet fudges a little when asked about integrating our women into the newest Virginia-class fast attack submarine (VCS) platform. He called it a tall order for a mature design.

The admiral may be unaware of the VCS's current bow redesign efforts (vertical launch tubes, sonar, and dome), but he's certainly aware our Navy excels at implementing "tall orders".

11. UPDATED 10/28/2009 Evacuation of a submarine crewmember from a deployed submarine is a rare occurrence, but handled routinely when undertaken.

Here is a short video of a recent medevac (September 2009) from an underway Ohio-class SSGN or SSBN, the submarine class women are expected to initially crew on.

The evacuation conditions are only slightly less than optimal: light breeze (notice the orange windsock on the submarine); calm sea state two; and daylight.

12. The Secretary of Defense (SecDef) Robert Gates is enjoying the Army-Navy game with his wife, Becky Gates. SecDef is wearing a Navy hat and sitting on the Navy side.

Rebecca "Becky" Gates is wearing a Virginia-class submarine, USS Missouri, SSN 780 hat. She recently commissioned christened the submarine and functions as its sponsor.

Originally Published January 14, 2010; Last Updated February 28, 2010; Last Republished February 28, 2010:

Our navy is expected to present its proposed shipbuilding plan and budget on February 01, 2010, concurrent with the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) 2010. The related Nuclear Posture Review 2010 has been delayed one month and is expected to be delivered to Congress on March 01, 2010 (Defense Committee Briefings February 01, 2010).

USS Virginia SSN 774

Partial Table - Virginia-class Submarine (VCS) Quantity 2011-2015¹

Res:

• UPDATED 02/28/2010 HASC, Opening Statement of Chairman Ike Skelton Hearing on the FY 2011 Department of the Navy Budget Request.

  The House Armed Services Committee (HASC) held February 24, 2010 hearing on the navy's proposed budget—testifying were Secretary of the Navy Ray Mabus (pdf), Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Gary Roughead (pdf), and Commandant Marine Corp General James T. Conway (pdf).

  "...The issue before us all, however, is affordability. Acquisition costs are rising faster than our budget's top-line, and without deliberate, sustained action to reverse this trend, we put the size and capability of the future force at risk...."--SON Ray Mabus, February 24, 2010--

  "...I am pleased with the accomplishments of the combined Navy-Industry team and look forward to even greater success as we ramp up production to two [Virginia-class] submarines next year...."--CNO, Gary Roughead--

• UPDATED 02/01/2010 Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2011 and DoD FY 2011 and Supporting Documentation and Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR)

  

  Since many of the budget and related documents are produced in parallel it's not uncommon for numbers to differ among CRS; OMB; DoD; or QDR documents.

  This is particularly true if you're trying to trace a single line item (e.g. a Virginia-class submarine).

  That said there's a whopping $5,132,688,000 ([QDR-R&D]/2) for two VCS and advance procurement for next years (FY2012) VCS, plus $132,039,000 for VCS support equipment in the unclassified budget.

  The president's budget still lists only one VCS and advance procurement, but then goes on to include this bit of budgeteering:

  "...[In all: $13,881,532,000] $15,724,520,000, to remain available for obligation until September 30, [2014] 2015: Provided, That additional obligations may be incurred after September 30, [2014] 2015, for engineering services, tests, evaluations, and other such budgeted work that must be performed in the final stage of ship construction:..."

  DoD P1 FY 2011 has proposed $15,724,250,000 for navy shipbuilding and conversion. Perhaps those inserting $15,724,520,000 multi-year obligation language into the president's budget meant $15,724,250,000?

Blog:

• UPDATED 01/15/2010 Lexington Institute⁷, Need For New Ballistic-Missile Sub Delays Development Of Virginia Replacement.

  Let's not ramp up the production rate¹ of the $2.8 billion dollar Virginia-class submarine (VCS) hoping for a threat to counter or even worse, begin designing a follow-on VCS without any understanding of the threat or mission it will perform (likely much different than past or present threats and missions).

  Instead, let's keep VCS production level at one per year¹ and extend the life of the billion dollar and perfectly good Los Angeles-class as far as its hull will safely tolerate.

  In the interim we can work on:

  • better understanding, defining, and refining the threats and missions we require our tactical submarine platforms to respond to; and
  • reducing the power plant footprint; and
  • ≈ halving the hull size⁸; and
  • maturing promising technologies and processes; and
  • recruiting and training indigenous engineering talent; and
  • halving the unaffordable and unsustainable three billion dollar price tag ($2.6 billion if the navy’s and contractors'³ affordability goals are realized); and

    • UPDATED 01/18/2010 To achieve the navy's goal of 48 fast attack submarines (313 ship navy) it would need to spend an estimated average of $27.4 billion⁴ on shipbuilding.

      In FY 2010 it spent $13.8 billion on shipbuilding, about half of what it would need to spend. All but the most ardent do not believe it is realistic to expect the navy to double its current shipbuilding budget.

      Stated differently the navy is unlikely to reach its goal of a 313 ship navy⁵ at the current average ship prices⁶. But then a 275-285 ship (40 fast attack submarines) navy is still an enormous and enormously expensive navy.

  • continue efforts too decrease the total life-cycle cost² of our submarine platforms.

Web:

• UPDATED 02/21/2010 UPI, Future weapons should be cheap weapons. Just for clarity—three billion dollars¹⁰ for a fast attack nuclear submarine IS NOT cheap!

  You can still be a leading submarine designer and manufacturer producing $1.3 billion dollar fast attack submarines (in fact the leader!); $1.3 billion is still not cheap, but it's moving in the right direction.

• UPDATED 02/08/2010 Heritage Foundation, Submarine Arms Race in the Pacific: The Chinese Challenge to U.S. Undersea Supremacy

  An informative article arguing for closing the "submarine gap"⁹ by among other recommendations, increasing the production of the Virginia-class submarine (VCS)—the article fails to make the case for increasing the production rate of the VCS.

  It's of course very difficult to think about the future disconnected from the past, but to state the obvious China is not Russia. To state the not so obvious: disagreements with China over interpretation of Law of Sea Treaty; claimed ownership of seabed natural resources; Internet militarization and freedoms; Taiwan self-defense; ensuring stability in China's Autonomous Provinces; or how to guarantee global growth and stability; and protection of sea lanes and line of communication is not a U.S.-China Cold War.

  Yet, this article, other articles, and to some extent our navy persist arguing within a general Russia-U.S. Cold War framework. Telling us that China has 60-70 submarines verses versus our projected 40 is only to hint at the scrap value of each nation's submarine fleet.

  There is very little of significance that an informed submariner does not currently understand about China's submarine fleet (of course we always want to understand more). The open source data hints at nothing more than a heightened watch and respond with prudent interest. Our Chief of Naval Operations; naval intelligence; and military research components are doing just that...

  Admittedly China's authoritarian leadership's studied ambiguous silence; timidity or reluctance to engage in transparent, candid, continuous, and meaningful military dialogue; and periodic public bellicosity are not helpful.

  The article makes much of the Virginia-class submarine's not insignificant ability to stealthily insert some Special Forces troops. However, our SSGN platform is significantly stealthier (it doesn't run noisy reactor coolant pumps) and carries significantly more Special Forces (SF) troops, SF support and insertion equipment, and quantities of cruise missiles.

  Those arguing that our submarine fleet should continue on a Cold War trajectory or tempo carry a heavy burden that is not met by citing quantities of submarines. A burden this article does not even come close to carrying.

  Our navy and military thinkers must begin transparently discussing our military spending within the context of cooperatively leveraging other nation's military resources to ensure global growth and stability, including China's! Curiously the article cites Australia and India's submarine acquisitions as indicating the need for increasing our submarine production not decreasing it.

  Those still stuck in a Cold War framework or paradigm may again be relevant, but that relevance is not within the open source data or the period of our navy's next 30-year shipbuilding plan. If the relevance is asserted within closed source data that data must be open sourced.

• UPDATED 01/22/2010 Reuters, Exclusive: Pentagon budget seeks to kill 7 arms programs

  "Shipbuilding accounts for $14.1 billion [$300 million increase over FY2010] of the 2011 budget request, funding that would pay for nine new ships. Included are two DDG-51 destroyers, two Virginia-class submarines, two Littoral Combat Ships and one amphibious assault ship."--Reuters--

• Bloomberg, Gates Tells Navy to Buy 17 Littoral Combat Ships Through 2015

  "...Gates told the Navy to add $2.38 billion for the second Virginia-class submarine in 2015, one more than the Navy planned...."--Bloomberg--

• Bloomberg, Lockheed, Raytheon Gain in Gates’s Europe Missile-Defense Plan

-----notes-----

1. The table may not reflect the Navy VCS proposed shipbuilding plan or budget when it is submitted on February 01, 2010. Specifically, it's unclear whether the Navy will propose another delay until 2015 of the two per year VCS production rate.

• UPDATED 01/22/2010 congressional testimony on January 20, 2010 indicate our navy's 2011-2015 plan will propose two VCS each year for a total of 10 VCS.

  

• UPDATED 01/22/2010 It's too early to begin talking about the SSBN(X) (aka SBSD, Sea Based Strategic Deterrent or Ohio-class replacement) beyond saying:
  • the navy wants to produce 12 (why not fewer); and
  • envisions ≈15K ton displacement (why not less); and
  • envisions 16 missile tubes (why not fewer); and
  • estimates $80-85 billion for the class (an obscene $7 billion each); and
  • will be spending at least $2 billion by 2015 for advance design, missile, and power plant work; and

  • would like to find a non-navy line item for the $85 billion or portion thereof (freeing up funds for its 313 ship goal dream or nightmare; see NavyTimes, House panel: Navy could seek fleet funding help).

    • An alternative non-navy source of funding for the estimated $85 SBSD platform would increase the VCS submarine platform force structure by four (other non-submarine platforms would increase too).

      It should be noted that the fast-attack (SSN) submarine platform force structure is front loaded in the 30-year shipbuilding plan. So the quantities are greater for the first decade (2011-2021) than the last two decades (2022-2040).

2. Life-cycle cost is significantly determined by design choices and trade-offs that are dependent on the availability and maturity of technologies.

3. Our submarine contractors (General Dynamics and Northrop Grumman) are exquisitely sensitized to the need for producing submarines that are smaller, cheaper, with superior performance characteristics.

But to use a fashionable term, sensitivity alone will not "bend the cost curve" (cost curves have always been bent but we get the message) or reduce total life-cycle cost. Particularly for a monopoly or some might argue a duopoly in a mostly opaque environment.

4. Global Strategic Assessment 2009, Recalibrating American Power, Alternative Force Structures and Resource Constraints.

5. UPDATED 01/22/2010 See congressional testimony of Eric J. Labs, Senior Analyst, Naval Forces and Weapons The Long-Term Outlook for the U.S. Navy’s Fleet (pdf), January 20, 2010

6. From Long-Term Outlook (see above):

7. UPDATED 01/22/2010 Loren B. Thompson's January 20, 2010 written testimony submitted to the Sea Power Subcommittee has several interesting observation on the funding pressures confronting a 313 ship navy.

As nations increase their portion of benefit from a global economy they can expect to fund more of its stability—conversely as our portion of benefit declines we can expect to fund less (although not necessarily do less; a pass-thy-hat strategy to global stability).

The funding equilibrium between hardware and sailor's training-morale-welfare is changing. This is especially true for our submariners as our navy seeks ways of retaining more qualified submariners, performing increasingly complex and technical tasks, for longer periods of time, in more challenging environments.

In this regard it seems useful to note that our navy's recent decision to open submarines to women will be helpful. Additionally, halving the submarine hull size; reducing unit and hardware life-cycle costs; off-loading some functions to autonomous systems; and improving network-centric capabilities etc. will be helpful.

8. UPDATED 02/02/2010 Beyond the obvious enhanced performance and decreased material costs, a smaller submarine requires fewer personnel to operate.

As a bonus the smaller the nuclear submarine, the smaller the power plant required to propel it through the water. There are many other good reasons to have smaller nuclear submarine, too.

Of course the submarine's mission(s) impact(s) submarine size too. Ideally a submarine's broad mission spectrum results from the ability to dynamically configure the submarine for a particular mission. As opposed to building a fleet of huge statically configured submarine to accommodate all predicted or imagined missions (which invariable change).

9. The language is reminiscent of the infamous Cold War "missile gap" that caused so much wasteful spending and was later discovered to have not existed.

10. UPDATED 02/22/2010 Fortunately, our navy and submarine contractors have stopped the questionable (some might say deceptive) practice of telling us the VCS costs $2 billion. Leaving unstated that they were using prior year or deflated dollars.

They are now using a constant year (2009) dollar figure of $2.6 billion dollars, but still leaving unstated the assumptions attached to the figure (e.g. that the VCS production rate increase too two submarines per year).

If any assumption fails, as is likely then the $2.6 billion dollar figure will not be realized. Additionally, the current base sticker price of $2.8 billion could rise. Stated differently the $2.6 billion is an unrealized hoped for goal that is unlikely to be met when all the actual VCS cost data are accumulated and analyzed. Cost data our navy must make publicly available along with cost and work breakdown structures, statement of work, and current contracts and attachements.

Unofficially, the forthcoming Nuclear Posture Review 2010 (≈March 02, 2010) is expected to dump the nuclear Tomahawk Land Attack Cruise Missile (TLAM-N¹)—good news for the few SSN submarines and submariners unlucky enough to deploy³ with this nettlesome nuclear nuisance.

Halibut submariners will chuckle at the comparison of a SSM-N-8A² (circa 1962) with the BGM 109A, aka TLAM-N (circa 2000).

Web: NTI, Nuclear-Armed Cruise Missiles to be Scrapped, U.S. Says

-----notes-----

1. Uses the W80 nuclear warhead.

2. Used a W27 nuclear warhead.

3. UPDATED 02/23/2010 A 1991 presidential nuclear initiative ended the fleet wide deployment of TLAM-N, but a fast attack submarine could still deploy with the nuclear variant cruise missile.

Those wanting an unofficial overview of our nuclear posture may want to browse the navy's military's great informative handbook, Nuclear Matters: A Practical Guide or download it in pdf (4.4M) format.

  

William D. Karr (1939-); USS Halibut, SSGN 587, (1962-1963), ETC SS.

• Halibut Hangar Record Last Updated: Record Needs Update
• Halibut Hangar Wiki Page: William D. Karr
• Date of Navy Records Request¹: TBD
• Oral History²: History Pending
• Other Links: Navy Veterans, William D. Karr

-----notes-----

1. See Requesting Your Halibut Records

2. See Library of Congress, Veterans History Project: Submarines, The Silent Service.

• Veterans History Project Field Kit

  • Submariner Oral History Cold War 1945-1991 (audio only)
  • Submariner Oral History Cold War 1945-1991 (requires Real Player)
  • Submariner Oral History Korean War 1950-1955 (requires Real Player)
  • Submariner Oral History WW II 1939-1946 (requires Real Player)

A Russian Akula-class I submarine, Ak Bars, K-480 caught fire during shipyard dismantling at Severodvinsk.

No injuries or atmospheric radiation (core was remove prior to the fire) have been reported.

Web: UPI, No one hurt in fire aboard Russian sub

Originally Published February 13, 2009; Last Updated February 19, 2010; Last Republished February 19, 2010:

The United States Navy is in the final days of a public comment period (ends March 01, 20091) for its draft environmental impact statement (DEIS) for implementation of a Swimmer Interdiction Security System (SISS) for the deep water9 (95-152m; 311-500 feet) surrounding our submarine Naval Base Kitsap at Bangor, Washington (aerial map of Kitsap). The proposed use of dolphins (qty, 20 maximum) is creating controversy7.

Sea Lion8, Puget Sound Buoy

The mammalian dolphin², like Halibut divers³, will not naturally swim in the cold waters (Washington Harbor⁴, Lat 48.5467;Long -123.01) surrounding the submarine Naval Base Kitsap.

A dolphin's size and mass is relevant as larger dolphins, say more than 190kg (419 pounds), will tolerate cooler temperatures better than smaller ones. Stated differently a smaller dolphin must increase its activity (generate heat) more than a larger one when swimming outside its lower limit of optimal water temperature range (see Section 6 (1.2M pdf)⁵ and Appendix B Suppl (1.4M pdf) to Appendix A of the DEIS for a discussion of temperature impacts⁶ on dolphin/sea lion, preferred alternative).

One option the Navy is considering is the use of dolphin warming pens to warm the dolphins in between performing their security rounds (doughnuts or coffee?)—the equivalent of diver rotation. Some evidence indicates the warming-cooling cycles may compromise the dolphin’s immune system.

Swimmer interdiction seems like a perfect mission for appropriately sensored autonomous or remotely operated vehicles or a network of underwater stationary sensors or an equally curious but more water temperature tolerant sea creature (e.g. sea lion) than a dolphin or a combination of all.

Standing an external security watch in Bangor, Washington is not the same as standing one in San Diego, California—just ask any Halibut submariner!

Web:

• UPDATED 02/19/2010 ScienceFriday (SciFri), Dolphins and Comparative Medicine.

  Nice SciFri interview with the veterinary epidemiologist and Director of Clinical Research at the navy sponsored National Marine Mammal Foundation and a professor of zoological medicine discussing dolphin care in general and the navy's dolphins in particular.

  Includes include audio (mp3) of the program and a video of a dolphin health checkup (65M mp4) at the dolphin pens in San Diego, California.

• UPDATED 11/19/2009 UPI, Navy to use dolphins to defend Wash. base.

  • UPDATED 12/08/2009 NYT, Navy Enlists Dolphins, Sea Lions to Patrol Waters Near Base.

• UPDATED 02/19/2009 Small N.L. town calls on coast guard to help save trapped dolphins. A small pod of white-nosed dolphins have been trapped in an icy pond in Seal Cove, Newfoundland (Wikimapia, aerial map).

  Officials and residents are trying to figure out how to help the trapped and dying dolphins—a dolphin's instinct interferes with their willingness to swim under the closing frozen ice slab.

  • 3 of 4 dolphins led through ice to safety, says mayor

  • YouTube (Dolphins Trapped In Ice)
• Dolphin proposal angers activists
  • UPDATED 02/14/2009 Knitting for Dolphins

Blog: Discover, The Trained Dolphin’s Next Trick: Arresting Aquatic Terrorists

Res:

• Dolphin Research Center
• SPAWAR, Navy Marine Mammal Research Program
  • Annotated Bibliography of Publications from the U.S. Navy's Marine Mammal Program
• Sarasota Dolphin Research Program

-----notes-----

1. Comments can be submitted at the above Swimmer Interdiction Security System website OR mailed OR faxed to Commanding Officer Space and Naval Warfare Systems Center, ATTN: Shannon Kasa, Project Manager or Mike Rothe, 53560 Hull Street, San Diego, CA 92152-5001, Fax: (619) 221-5251, email: NBKEIS@spawar.navy.mil, Phone: (888) 510-5476 during the comment period.

All written comments must be postmarked by March 1, 2009, to ensure they become part of the official record. All comments will be addressed in the Final EIS.

2. The Navy is also considering use of other alternatives like sea lions (qty, 16), human divers, and remote and autonomous underwater vehicles and none of these alternatives.

Bottlenose dolphin's internal core temperature ranges between 95-98.4F^o compared with man's 98.6-99.1F^o. As in all things the more you know the more you know you don't know—how dolphins regulate their core temperature, heat flow, and store heat in different environments is no exception (see How dolphins use their blubber to avoid heat stress during encounters with warm water).

The below graph shows that as water temperature passes through 25C (77F) Ben unexpectedly begins sinking and/or shunting heat in a manner that enables his rectal temperatures (core) to temporarily plummet before rising (research funded by Office of Naval Research).

If a similar but inverse graph holds for cold water do dolphins stand 40 minute security watches before returning to their heated pen. Assuming the dolphin is not harmed by repeated cool-warm cycling?

A dolphin's optimal baseline metabolism rate is 1.5-2 times ours.

Dolphins have been observed in water temperatures between 33.9F^o and 87.9F^o. One must be careful to distinguish between a dolphin's random and periodic food forays into non-optimal water temperatures and the systemic use of a dolphin in non-optimal water temperatures.

In the winter you might temporarily stand on the Hood Canal bridge for a photo-op—repeatedly standing there overnight or at four hour intervals of "on the bridge-in your car" is not a behavior you're likely to enjoy or repeat for long (you will remember it, though!).

3. When Halibut docked in Washington its divers occasionally entered these fridge and deep waters. Needless to say, in their normal rubber "wet suit" they did not stay long—rotating if the shallow water work (usually removing, untangling or inspecting objects) required extended periods of "in water" time.

During Halibut's missions its divers swam in colder waters, at deeper depths, and breathed a mixture of helium and oxygen (HeOx or MOX; saturation diver).

A HeOx breathing diver is relatively colder than a non-HeOx breathing diver for a given point environment. A thermal protection suit (generally circulating a warm liquid), in addition to their wet suit, is required to maintain their body temperature within normal mammalian man temperature ranges (dolphins probably would not respond well or efficiently perform their mission wearing a thermal protection suit).

4. Point temperatures can significantly vary between nearby points within the same body of water. Mean temperature ranges are generally more informative. (Dec-Feb 44.6F^o-48.2F^o; harbor water east side of Poulsbo—Hood Canal is on the west side.)

5. Figure 6.4 (Figure 6–4. Metabolic Rate of Bottlenose Dolphins in Relation to Water Temperature) summarizing Laura C. Yeates and Dorian S. Houser, Thermal tolerance in bottlenose dolphins, Journal of Experimental Biology 211, 3249-3257 (2008) incorrectly labels the x axis in degrees Celsius.

6. Hopefully, the final environmental impact statement will include a discussion of temperature including profile (T_w and T_c), physiologic impacts, and work performed, if any, for a dolphin descending a "1,000 feet in a matter of minutes".

7. The documentation indicates our Navy and their corporate surrogates are seriously fielding, addressing, and attempting to resolve in scope concerns.

While our underwater technological may not yet match, in certain respects, the dolphin's or sea lion's sensing solution it's difficult to imagine its inability to secure fjord waters in the absence of a dolphin.

The Navy should, if it hasn't already done so, designate a trusted, known, and knowledgeable opposition representative with sufficient clearance to access and evaluate the classified appendix. Or better yet declassify and publish for public evaluation the appendix.

8. UPDATED 02/15/2009 Sea Lions spend more than half the time submerged and routinely reached maximum depths of 548 feet (167 m) in around 4 minutes (see below table for young California Sea Lions diving in February, March, April):

Other researchers have recently recorded similar results and greater maximum depths.

9. UPDATED 02/15/2009 Depth range relates to the immediate area around NBK-Bangor piers (see page 40 of 84 of Chapters 1-2 of DEIS (4M pdf) for map of NBK-Bangor). Some areas of Hood Canal are deeper at between (225-258m; 738-856 feet).

Washington University, School of Oceanography has created some great current combined bathymetry and topography maps of Puget Lowland, Washington State.

A quick online NOAA bathymetry map of the same area can be viewed here (see below smaller image).

The United States Navy, Commander of Pacific Fleet has confirmed the Dive Detectives and Yap Film footage as the WW II Gato-class submarine USS Flier SS 250.

The general location was given as the Balabac Strait—more later when more details are available.

Web:

• USS Flier Crew
• Family of U.S.S. Flier explosion in WWII thrilled about submarine's discovery
• NavSource, USS Flier
• Naval Historical Center Library, USS Flier