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Originally Published August 28, 2009; Last Updated March 07, 2010; Last Republished March 07, 2010:
"In a mature fast-reactor economy, however, there will be no legitimate reason either to enrich uranium or to use the PUREX-type process that extracts pure, weapons-usable plutonium. Any such effort would be prima facie evidence of an attempt to build nuclear weapons, making it easy to monitor and stop would-be proliferators."--George Stanford--
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UPDATED 03/07/2010 Reuters, China says Iran sanctions no cure.
It seems pretty clear that all nations agree that Iran sanctions are not a cure. Rather an incremental process whereby every nation decides notwithstanding current interests they will begin disentangling and disengaging from a high probability proliferator.
It seem beneficial that disentanglement and disengagement does not happen in unison, but rather contiguously and continuously across time and nations. Some nations will disentangle and disengage immediately others will require considerably more time to unwind, substitute, and pursue alternatives.
A nation with more entanglements and engagements has a greater opportunity and incentive to influence a high probability proliferator, while simultaneously participating in the disentanglement or disengagement.
But refusing to participate or impeding disentanglement and disengagement because sanctions are not a cure is nothing less than facilitating a high probability proliferation.
The wonderful Iranian people are pursuing a cure—some are being water and chemically cannoned by riot vehicles provided courtesy of China. (see NYT, U.S. Enriches Companies Defying Its Policy on Iran for our support to Iran nothwithstanding our calls for sanctions.
UPDATED 01/17/2010 UPI, China not to back new sanctions.
Simply referring to "room for negotiation" without explanation or active participation risks the appearance of obstructing nonproliferation efforts.
UPDATED 01/12/2010 VOA, US Defense Spy Chief: Iran Undecided on Nuclear Bomb.
"The fact is, Iran is not dealing straight up,...So they [Iranian leaders] can say whatever they would like. I'm [Lieutenant General Ronald Burgess] an intelligence professional. My job is to verify. And so we continually work on trying to verify what it is the Iranians say. But they are engaged in use of words that is not moving this in a positive direction."
Fortunately for the general Iran is a leaky sieve—unfortunately, Iran’s current leadership are operating with wacky religious beliefs.
The general is not just trying to separate and verify data (signal) from wacky religious beliefs, dogma, and rhetoric (noise), but their unique brand of wacky religious beliefs, dogma, and rhetoric (noise)—it's very difficult, even for an experienced professional to get at the signal.
UPDATED 01/05/2010 LAT, China dismisses more UN sanctions talk during its Security Council presidency in January.
China risks its credibility and projecting a perception that it's a facilitator of nuclear proliferation instead of impeder.
Diplomacy must proceed in combination with other continuous cooperative actions related to increasing the probability of nonproliferation and decreasing the probability of proliferation.
China must explain its assertion that now is not the time for further action in parallel with diplomacy.
UPDATED 12/22/2009 Brookings, Sanctioning Iran: If Only It Were So Simple.
Most do not argue that Iran sanctions are a panacea—most acknowledge the limited usefulness of sanctions—most do not suggest Iran or nuclear proliferation in general are simple matters.
Nevertheless, a consensus for the combination of: diplomacy; smart application and administration of sanctions; comprehensive inspections; and the application of targeted United Nations authorized force have been shown useful in curbing proliferation.
Ultimately the Iranian people must be the ones to exchange their authoritarian religious leaders for non-authoritarian secular leaders.
Leaders who depend on the consensus of the talented Iranian people not on wacky religious dogma and doctrine to govern.
UPDATED 12/16/2009 Reuters, Iran missile test draws Western condemnation.
It’s useful to recall that this isn't about Iran, but about how all nations' proliferation efforts will be handled.
Patient, persistent diplomacy aimed at continuous closing consensus sanctions—who cares if Iran's wacky religious regime test-launch a missile or two or three a day.
It's useful to be mindful, as Zbigniew Brzezinski recently cautioned, that some are seeking to use Iran's irresponsible non-imminent (remote) generalized threats and harmless schoolyard antics and bullying to justify an unlawful preventative attack (as opposed to lawful preemptive attack).
UPDATED 11/27/2009 Reuters, IAEA votes to rebuke Iran over nuclear cover-up.
A mostly symbolic IAEA Board of Governors resolution expressing frustration at Iran's delayed disclosure of the Qom nuclear site—Iran made a belated disclosure of the Qom site after a U.S. disclosure—a move unlikely to increase Iran's credibility or trust by the IAEA or community of nations.
In an encouraging sign of unity against nuclear proliferation all five major Security Council nations voted in favor of the resolution that requires Iran to cease construction activity of the Qom site, among other items:
UPDATED 11/19/2009 UK Guardian, Barack Obama: Iran faces fresh nuclear sanctions within weeks
"Iran's foreign minster [sic Foreign Minister], Manouchehr Mottaki, speaking in Manila, dismissed talk of further sanctions. "Sanction was the literature of the 60s and 70s,' he said. 'I think they are wise enough not to repeat failed experiences.'"--UK Guardian--
Iran's foreign minister is absolutely incorrect with respect to sanctions relating to weapons of mass destruction (WMD) or potential proliferation of WMD or a prior opaque pattern with respect to potential proliferation of WMD.
The community of nations must continue their impressive work to ensure all state sanctions relating to production of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) or potential proliferation of WMD or a prior opaque pattern with respect to potential proliferation of WMD continually escalate from trivial to total state isolation until confident conforming compliance with all IAEA guidance is demonstrated by the offending state.
UPDATED 11/16/2009 Reuters, Secrecy raises fears of more Iran atom sites: IAEA and IAEA, Latest IAEA Safeguards Reports Sent to IAEA Board.
Download the November 16, 2009 IAEA report on Iran from ISIS (43K pdf) or ACA (43K pdf).
UPDATED 10/02/2009 NYT, Iranian Opposition Leader Warns Against Sanctions.
“This would impose further pain on a nation that has already suffered a great deal by its schizophrenic rulers. We are against any kind of sanctions on people.”--Iran Opposition Leader Mir Hussein Moussavi--
UPDATED 10/01/2009 Reuters, Iran nuclear talks with U.S. and allies eases tension.
Reports, if confirmed, that Iran will obtain 20% enriched fuel2 from the IAEA, via Russia are good news.
Iran is apparently amenable to obtaining nuclear fuel from an IAEA fuel bank in lieu of continuing its pursuit of the fuel cycle?
Hopefully, Israel, Pakistan, and India will be convinced global security requires all nations to rely on a fuel bank.
The major nuclear powers must continue reducing their uranium and plutonium stockpiles so that within a short period EVERY nation has switched to an IAEA run and controlled fuel bank for ALL its fissile material.
UPDATED 09/26/2009 VOA, Iran to Allow IAEA Inspectors into Nuclear Plant.
Israel must focus on becoming a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and follow-on Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT).
Leave Iran (an NPT signatory) and its nuclear fuel cycle to the United Nations Security Council and IAEA.
Ditto for Pakistan and India.
UPDATED 09/25/2009 NYT, U.S. to Accuse Iran of Having Secret Nuclear Fuel Facility.
Iran has informed the IAEA that it has another previously undisclosed enrichment facility. Repeatedly lying to the world when saying it had cooperated fully with the IAEA. A lie repeated again this week by the putative Iranian president at the United Nations.
Iran's has decided to come clean after it learned we've been monitoring construction of the secret Iranian facility for years. Better late than never.
There is some beauty in Iran's religious regime1 being hoisting on its own petard.
UPDATED 09/23/2009 Reuters, Six powers demand "serious response" from Iran.
In an encouraging and remarkable display of unity the major nuclear powers and permanent security council members have encouraged Iran to transparently cooperate with IAEA or face additional consequences.
UPDATED 09/11/2009 NYT, U.S. to Accept Iran’s Proposal to Hold Talks.
Kudos to the president for talking to Iran in person and anywhere and anytime, and on any topic of national importance to them or us.
UPDATED 09/10/2009 ProPublica, Exclusive: Read Iran’s New Proposal for Nuclear Talks.
Article includes a copy of Iran's proposal.
UPDATED 09/11/2009 U.S. negotiators find little in the proposal to form a basis for negotiation.
Russia has unfortunately indicated its opposition to additional sanctions should Iran continue to be unresponsive to all IAEA requests. Perhaps it can point to hooks upon which to hang negotiations? (see CSM, Iran nuclear proposal rejected as Russia dismisses sanctions and Xinhua, Iran Nuclear Crisis)
Surely Russia's stature will significantly diminish if it supports national intransigence to legitimate IAEA requests.
UPDATED 09/05/2009 Reuters, Iran dismisses bomb studies intelligence as forged.
On matters of fissile material and nuclear proliferation nothing but total transparency is acceptable for all nations (i.e. total and unimpeded access to all facilities, scientists, documents, stockpiles, hardware etcetera).
All nations' ability to participate in any international system must be inversely related to that nation's opaqueness on matters of fissile material and nuclear proliferation. All nations' ability to participate in any international system must be highly correlated with that nation's total transparency on matters of fissile material and nuclear proliferation.
The non-transparent nation's disconnect from all international systems must be immediate, objective, progressive, proportional, public, consistent, and reversible.
9/02/2009 Reuters, Iran nuclear "threat" hyped: IAEA's ElBaradei.
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) out-going Director General Mohamed ElBaradei tells the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists that in many ways the Iran nuclear threat has been hyped. (see below for latest IAEA report on Iran's efforts to master the nuclear fuel cycle.)
Follow up:
It should be noted that, although the Agency has limited means to authenticate independently the documentation that forms the basis of the alleged studies, the information is being critically assessed, in accordance with the Agency’s practices, by corroborating it, inter alia, with other information available to the Agency from other sources and from its own findings. A description of all of the documentation available to the Agency about the alleged studies which the Agency has been authorized to share with Iran and which has been sufficiently vetted by the Agency was provided in the Director General’s report of May 2008 (GOV/2008/15, Annex A). It should be noted, however, that the constraints placed by some Member States on the availability of information to Iran are making it more difficult for the Agency to conduct detailed discussions with Iran on this matter.
Notwithstanding, as the Director General has repeatedly emphasized, the information contained in that documentation appears to have been derived from multiple sources over different periods of time, appears to be generally consistent, and is sufficiently comprehensive and detailed that it needs to be addressed by Iran with a view to removing the doubts which naturally arise, in light of all of the outstanding issues, about the exclusively peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear programme.
The above items from the report do not include Heading or Footnotes—a pdf of the report can be viewed or downloaded at Scribd (see below above link).
-----notes-----
1. Religious regimes like nuclear weapons have out lived their usefulness.
2. It appears Iran is requesting fuel based on definitional criteria as opposed to technical.
Fuel less than 20% is considered low enriched uranium (LEU).