Misblog

Originally Published June 2, 2008; Updated and Republished June 13, 2008; Updated and Republished July 02, 2008; Updated and Republished July 10, 2008; Updated and Republished July 16, 2008; Updated and Republished August 13, 2008; Updated and Republished September 26, 2008:

If you are sitting down to "talk some sense" into the Iranians you are not talking to them—you’re trying to impose your ideas and perceptions on them—we don’t want McCain sitting down to “talk some sense” into the Iranians, either.

McCain and others demagoguing Iran¹ will find it helpful to seek out other information like these photographs from California and Tehran photographers of the very beautiful and typical Iranians: After the Revolution: Contemporary Photography from Tehran and California.

Unfortunately, the world is currently more inclined to impose an international boycott on Israel—of course someone suggesting you only talk with the aim of “talking sense into another” may be unable to perceive this inclination.

Res: Iran's Political, Demographic, and Economic Vulnerabilities (500K pdf)

"...At least in the near term, the Iranian regime is likely to be relatively stable and resistant to external pressures for dramatic change. But societal conditions for a more-constructive relationship with the United States exist: In contrast with the Arab Middle East, the United States is popular in Iran. Long-term trends suggest that Iran is likely to become more democratic and less obdurate."--Iran's Political, Demographic, and Economic Vulnerabilities @ page 21--

It is worth pointing our that Rick Steves did not need a "study" to arrive at the same conclusion, only his camera and an excuse to visit with Iranians. (see Rick's blog below.)

Blog:

• UPDATED 06/12/2008 Travel with Rick, Iran Slideshow and Iran postings. I think Rick Steves also has an PBS travel show on his Iran travels (properly "minded" of course), scheduled to show in January 2009 (see note from Public Radio International, The World which recently interviewed Rick.)

  "We can talk to whomever we like — but it reminds me of my early trips to the USSR, when only those with nothing to lose would risk talking openly to us (at least when our “guide” was present). So many who've commented on the blog have assumed I am not troubled by the lack of freedom here. Civil liberties for women, religious minorities, and anyone who chooses not to embrace this self-described “revolution of values” are, to me the mark of a modern, free, and, I believe, sustainable democracy. Those both for and against my trip here all agree with that. A key word here is sustainable. I believe — given time and a chance to evolve on their cultural terms — the will of the people ultimately prevails. For now, this country is not free (and no one here claims it is). A creepiness that comes with big government pervades the place. I wonder how free-minded people cope. I am excited to sort this out as our trip goes along."--Rick Steves, May 19, 2008--

  

  "...By the way, our government guide has not stopped me from going anywhere or talking to anyone. We haven't been able to film just anywhere, but I've been free to roam about on my own without him and have fun connecting with locals. And I have absolutely never traveled to a place where I had such an easy and enjoyable time connecting with people. Young, educated people speak English. Locals were as confused about and fascinated by me as I was about them. ..."--Rick Steves, May 29, 2008--

  Rick's great slideshow photos are numerous, varied, larger, and higher resolution.

Web:

• UPDATED 09/26/2008 AP->Yahoo, US warns Iran as nuclear talks yield no deal.

• UPDATED 08/13/2008 Guardian, US warns against Israeli plan to strike against Iran's nuclear facilities. America tells Israel their planned attack on Iran is not in our interest and refuses to provide military assets.

  Additionally, we must publicly make crystal clear to Israel that any attack of Iran will immediately truncate all American military support, loan guarantees, and non-humanitarian financial or in-kind aid.

• UPDATED 07/19/2008 AFP, US warns Iran as nuclear talks yield no deal.
• UPDATED 07/16/2008 Reuters, Paper says U.S. to establish Tehran presence. What took us so long?
• UPDATED 07/16/2008 AFP, Iran accepts nuclear talks but has 'red lines": Khamenei:.

• UPDATED 07/15/2008 AP, Official: US envoy to meet Iranian nuke negotiator. Why do we threaten and bully before we talk?

  We are drowning in both civilian and military grade plutonium and currently have no economically feasible way to dispose of this balefully toxic substance. Worldwide military grade plutonium stocks are currently estimated at 155 metric tons.

  The "plutonium pit" (²³⁹Pu) of today's unimaginably destructive nuclear weapons is like a terminally toxic lead tennis ball² that will be with us for 24,100 years. Uranium (²³⁵U) decays to thorium (²³¹Th) in 704,000,000 years!

  All because we are frightened of each other—how many tons of weapons grade plutonium will we have to accumulated before we stop fearing one another? Could it be the more tons we accumulate the more frightened we become?

• UPDATED 07/12/2008 AFP, Iran says talk of US attack 'craziness'.

• UPDATED 07/09/2008 AFP, US plays down fears of war with Iran.

  "The reality is there is a lot of [sic] signalling going on, but everybody recognizes what the consequences of any kind of a conflict would be,"--US Secretary of Defense Gates--

• UPDATED 07/09/2008 AFP, Defiant Iran angers US with missile test.
• UPDATED 07/02/2008 AFP, Negotiated end to nuclear standoff possible: Iranian FM and WP, Chairman of Joint Chiefs Says More Troops Needed in Afghanistan.

• UPDATED 06/13/2008 Reuters, Big powers to offer Iran "generous" deal. EU's Javier Solana heads to Iran (hopefully not to talk some sense into them) to meet with Iran's negotiator Saeed Jalili.

  He hopes to convince Iran to modify their access to the NPT nuclear fuel cycle in exchange for incentives offered by the United States, China, Russia, Britain, Germany and France.

  Unfortunately, in the current environment it will be difficult to convince Iran that any agreement will not impede their legitimate access to nuclear power, which Iran will need as their relatively small oil reserves are depleted.

• UPDATED 06/04/2008 UPI, Remarks by Sen. Obama at AIPAC meeting. Obama clarified that Jerusalem's status must be negotiated between the Jews and Palestinians (WP, Obama Backs Away From Comment on Divided Jerusalem). We have made clear to both that our embassy will not be moved to Jerusalem.

  America currently gives $3 billion a year to Israel. The total of all US aid to Israel 1949-2006 is a whopping $98.7 billion dollars. See U.S. Foreign Aid to Israel, CRS RL33222, (2007)—not a bad return on Israel's lobbying efforts!

• McCain criticizes Obama on Iran. Those wanting more information on the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, (AIPAC), should read John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M Walt, The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy, Farrar, Straus and Giroux, (2007) and a rebuttal by Abraham H. Foxman, The Deadliest Lies: the Israel lobby and the myth of Jewish control, Palgrave Macmillan, (2007)

-----notes-----

1. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is not the only one calling for the destruction of Israel. Our president and his Christian "fundamentalist base" are also calling for Israel's destruction—it's part of their practiced and professed Christian belief and a predicate to the "Second Coming of Christ".

Amazingly, as recent as last week some of Israel's leaders and supporters expressed their support for one of those calling for its destruction—fundamentalist American preacher and McCain supporter, John Hagee (every Christian "fundamentalist", including our president share Hagee's belief).

Of course when Hagee expressed his belief very publicly and McCain wanted to "pass the hat and plea for votes", at AIPAC, he denounced Hagee (ironically the Israeli leaders and supporters did not), although not in the same terms as he denounces Ahmadinejad.

Educate yourself—it's the universal vaccine against demagoguery and demagogues, not to mention protection against electing them as our leaders! [If you need a place to begin, but not end, check-out what University of Chicago Professor of History of Modern Christianity, Martin Marty, has to say. Marty also participates in the Martin Marty Center for Advanced Study of Religion.]

2. If we assume a tennis ball has a diameter of 2.75 inches (6.985 centimeters) and a plutonium matrix density of 19.83 grams/centimeter³ then a spherical pit weighs 7.8 pounds, significantly more than a lead tennis ball’s 4.46 pounds.

Plutonium's density varies significantly by matrix type and temperature but in all cases its density is greater than lead.

Originally published March 17, 2008, Updated and Republished April 25, 2008, Updated and Republished May 02, 2008; Updated and Republished May 21, 2008; Updated and Republished June 06, 2008; Updated and Republished July 01, 2008:

These six eight eight-point-five nine 10 11 12 combined indicators signal an Iran attack is imminent:

12. UPDATED 07/01/2008 Bush, Cheney and the so called congressional "Gang of Eight"³ (Nancy Pelosi, Roy Blunt, Sivestre Reyes, Peter Hoekstra, Harry Reid, Mitch McConnell, John Rockefeller, and Christopher Bond) have begun running major covert operations against Iran to provoke a Casus Beli sufficient to justify an Iran War debacle—guess if you can't manufacture intelligence to begin an Iran War debacle you just have to try provoking it!

    The secret covert operations are being directed out of Vice President Cheney's office in the White House (New Yorker Magazine, Preparing the Battlefield).

    November 2008 cannot come too soon for this American—any chance we can just skip the conventions and hold early elections?!

11. UPDATED 06/06/2008 Israel's low level Transport Minister, Shaul Mofaz, sends up a trial balloon that Israel will attack Iran if it does not stop uranium enrichment (Reuters, Israel to attack Iran unless enrichment stops: minister).

    If Israel preemptively attacks Iran, America must immediately stop ALL monetary financial aid ($3 Billion per year)², military loan guarantees, and delivery of all (defensive and offensive) military hardware to Israel.

    America must make crystal clear that we will not defend Israel in ANY war preemptively initiated by Israel. America must make crystal clear that it will defend Israel if she is attacked.

    UPDATED 06/09/08 Guess the trial balloon didn't go over so well (AP, Israel backs away from minister's Iran statement).

10. UPDATED 05/21/2008 Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has urged the United States (House Speaker Nancy Pelosi during yesterday's visit) to blockade Iran. (AFP).

    Go for it Olmert (guarantee it will distract the Israelis from your being investigated for corruption - Reuters and AP)! If you think you have enough support in Israel to declare war against Iran—get your submarines in the water and begin an Israeli naval blockade (an act of war under international law)! We want no part of an Israel-neoconservative Israel-Iran war or ANY American politician that does!

9. UPDATED 05/21/2008 Jerusalem Post is quoting "senior officials" as saying Bush plans to attack Iran in the coming months—a claim spokespuppet Dana Perino says isn't worth the paper it's written on—yeah, but is it true Perino?(AP)

8. UPDATED 04/25/2008 Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman, Admiral Michael Mullen, using vague and militarily meaningless words, states that the Pentagon is planning for "potential military courses of action" against Iran. (WP and AFP)

   • 8.5. UPDATED 05/02/2008 Secretary of Defense Gates and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman, Admiral Michael Mullen, continue their "Mutt and Jeff" comic routine on Iran attack...(CBS)
7. UPDATED 03/18/2008 On Wednesday Speaker Pelosi will begin an "India Only" visit extending through the Easter weekend, ostensibly to talk about the stalled nuclear deal with India. (UPI)
6. Israel announces it is preparing to conduct nation wide nuclear drills on April 6, 2008. (UPI)
5. United States simultaneously deploys all four of its SSGN submarine platforms—combined they carry up to 616 cruise missiles, 250 special forces troops, and special equipment.(NavNews)
4. The Chief Commander of Middle East Forces, four star Admiral William Fallon, resigns. (AP)
3. Cheney travels to Middle East ostensibly for peace talks with Israel and Saudi Arabia, makes a surprise pop-up visit to Iraq with the delusional declaration that Iraq has been a successful endeavor¹ (no word on whether he went shopping in the market just like back home).(AFP and AFP)
2. Cold War antiquarians, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, travel to Russia ostensibly for talks about Missile Defense. (AFP)
1. Hard-line nationalist Iranian politicians overwhelmingly win in Iran’s parliamentary elections. (AP)

There is absolutely NO American national security interest to protect by attacking Iran, NONE—It is hard to over-state how foolish it is for America to attack Iran!

Conflating Al Qaeda and Saddam Hussein produced the Iraq debacle. Conflating Israel's interests with America's interests will produce the Iran debacle.

America has no interest in attacking Iran on behalf of Israel, Israeli Lobby, or neoconservatives—None, nada, zero, zip, zippo, nothing, null, goose egg, nil, zilch.

-----notes-----

1. Well then, having declared success all that remains is to bring our troops home from Iraq.

2. Total of all US aid to Israel 1949-2006 is a whopping $98.7 billion dollars. See U.S. Foreign Aid to Israel, CRS RL33222, (2007)—not a bad return on Israel's lobbying efforts!

The former Israel defense minister neglected to mention that Israel does not currently have the conventional weaponry to more than irritate Iran. Additionally, the cost to Israel will likely exceed the cost of 18 cascades and the resources to rebuild any Israel manage to destroy (i.e. those less than several meters underground).

If Israel attacks Iran with non-conventional weapons (e.g. low yield nuclear "bunker buster"), irritating Iran will be the least of its concerns.

3. Not to be confused with the Chinese Communist Party's so called Eight Immortals.

Seymour Hersh is reporting that House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi and Senate Leader, Harry Reid, while publicly castigating and condemning the Iraq debacle are secretly authorizing and funding the creation of an Iran debacle¹!

To say our congressional leadership has some explaining to do is the proverbial understatement.

Is it possible that our entire leadership has become completely unhinged and disconnected from those they supposedly represent?

Web: Seymour M. Hersh, PREPARING THE BATTLEFIELD: The Bush Administration steps up its secret moves against Iran

Media:

• Updated 07/01/2008 NPR Audio,Seymour Hersh On Covert Operations In Iran (44 mins). NPR's Terry Gross talks with Hersh about his article.

• Updated 07/01/2008

-----notes-----

1. Under the category of will we never learn—the CIA is apparently working with supporters and members of the People’s Mujahedeen of Iran (PMOI). The PMOI is yesterday's declared "terrorist group" cum today's "freedom fighter" group (see exiles back armed opposition).

Evidently, American and British intelligence, paramilitary, and Special Forces are providing significant assistance (cash, weapons, and personnel) to PMOI.

The "Findings and Determination" under which we are conducting this secret war against Iran, including all its funding must be immediately made public—one debacle by secrecy and deception is quite enough.

Additionally, hearings and investigations must be conducted to determine the exact extent of our involvement in the Iran secret American military action.

Liege Lord Roberts Gates says Knight William Fallon's resignation does not portend another King Bush the Idiot disastrous discretionary castle siege debacle—Knight-errant and commander of chariots Martin E. Dempsey will replace Knight Fallon1. Wonder what these two three stories portend about King Bush the Idiot's realm, the state of the knighthood, and creating yet another disastrous discretionary castle siege debacle.

Web:

• UPDATED AFP, Oil prices burst record 110 dollars
• AFP, Oil prices rocket close to 110 dollars a barrel
• UPI, Fallon resigns as Central Command chief

-----notes-----

1. Kudos to Admiral Fallon for resigning from King Bush the Idoit's realm—all four stars should follow his lead—our nation's military leaders did not achieve their sterling status following fools or assuming the role of court jester.